VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITY

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1 VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND DIPLOMACY DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE Aistė Beliūnaitė THE NEW RISE OF THE POLITICAL RIGHT IN THE UNITED STATES: THE CASE OF DONALD TRUMP NAUJASIS DEŠINIOSIOS POLITIKOS IŠKILIMAS JAV: DONALDO TRUMPO ATVEJIS Final bachelor thesis World politics and economy programme, state code 6121JX037 Political science study field Supervisor: Dr. Andrius Švarplys (signature) (date) Defended: Prof. Dr. Šarūnas Liekis (signature) (date) Kaunas, 2021

2 Table of contents ABSTRACT... 3 SANTRAUKA... 5 INTRODUCTION THEORETICAL ANALYSIS The Right-wing politics, Trump, and the role of Silent Revolution and Cultural Backlash Economic grievances impact on the rise of Right-wing politics The class conflict of interests significance in the rise of Donald Trump Identity politics effect on the rise of Right-wing politics EMPIRICAL RESEARCH. DISCOURSE ANALYSIS OF DONALD TRUMP S PUBLIC SPEECHES OF PERIOD. CASE STUDY Description of the method Analysis of Donald Trump acceptance speech at 2016 Republican National Convention Analysis of Donald Trump acceptance speech at 2020 Republican National Convention Analysis of Donald Trump 2017 speech to joint session of congress Analysis of Donald Trump 2019 State of the Union address Further analysis of cultural backlash, economic grievances, class war, and identity politics attributes in Donald Trump s speeches DISCUSSION OF THE OBTAINED RESULTS AND BROADER CONTEXT OF THE FINDINGS CONCLUSIONS LIST OF LITERATURE AND SOURCES ANNEXES

3 Beliūnaitė A., The New Rise of the Political Right in the United States: The Case of Donald Trump; Final Bachelor Thesis in World Politics and Economy / Supervisor Dr. Švarplys A.; Vytautas Magnus University, Faculty of Political Science and Diplomacy, Department of Political Science. Kaunas, pages ABSTRACT In 2016 US presidential elections the victory was forecasted for the first female would-be president Hilary Clinton, however, the election took a shocking turn and Donald Trump was announced as the winner. Many public figures and even academics attributed his win to populism, fascism, white supremacy, and bigotry. The aim of this work is to research the social and economic factors behind the victory of Donald Trump. To achieve this goal, author employs 2 scientific methods: literature analysis and discourse analysis. The work is divided into 2 main parts. In the first part - literature analysis this research argues that the popularity and the rise of Donald Trump is a result of old and deep-rooted social and economic conditions cultural backlash, economic grievances, class conflict, identity politics. Mentioned conditions and their reflection in Trump s rhetoric is the object of the work. The work gives insights that Americans are tired and burdened by these circumstances. Their voting habits are changing, social conservatives feel marginalized in a society obsessed with freedom and individualism, they want family values, traditional gender roles and Christianity to be brought back to public life. This work suggests illegal immigration is playing a significant part in the rise of Donald Trump. It is an important factor in cultural backlash when old white boomer generation starts feeling like strangers in their land. Further, it connects to economic grievances when illegal immigrants agree to work for lower salaries and drive down wages for local workers. Illegal immigration also relates to class war because immigration is beneficial for overclass but harmful for working class. Economic grievances play a vital role in the rise of Trump, the examined indicators prove that income inequality has become more common, the income of the middle class decreased, the number of workplaces in secondary industries sharply dropped, more people are living under international poverty line. The research further argue that both Democrats and Republicans engage in identity politics, identities played an important role in 2016 presidential elections. In the second part of the work discourse analysis of 4 Trump speeches showed that cultural backlash, economic grievances, class war and identity politics topics are reflected in Trump speeches. In other words, he discussed and talked about these 4 social and economic conditions, promised to 3

4 make changes and it helped him gain votes from electoral base. Regardless cultural backlash topic, Trump mentions abortions and faith, a large portion of his speech is focused on illegal immigration. Illegal immigration in Trump s rhetoric is more connected to absence of law and order than to cultural aspects. Nevertheless, this work provides arguments that cultural backlash can be widely interpreted and still can be connected to illegal immigration narrative. Furthermore, economic grievances are very important in Trump s rhetoric. For these losses Trump blames NAFTA and other unfair trade deals, Trump dedicates a large part of his speech to discuss the destruction of workplaces. In Trump s rhetoric, as a feature of class conflict of interests, the anti-elitist and anti-establishment narrative is prevalent. Further, the manifestations of nationalism are common. It can be considered a feature of conservative identity politics. As can be concluded, Donald Trump rhetoric reflects cultural backlash, economic grievances, class conflict of interests, and identity politics, therefore, these 4 social and economic factors can be approached as an explanation for his rise. 4

5 Beliūnaitė A., Naujasis Dešiniosios politikos iškilimas JAV: Donaldo Trumpo atvejis; politikos ir ekonomikos bakalauro darbas / Vadovas Dr. Švarplys A.; Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas, politikos mokslų ir diplomatijos fakultas, politologijos katedra. Kaunas, puslapių. SANTRAUKA 2016 metų JAV prezidento rinkimuose ekspertai prognozavo pergalę Hilary Clinton. Deja, rinkimai pasisuko netikėta linkme ir rezultatai pergalę lėmė Donaldui Trumpui. Daugybė visuomenės veikėjų ir net akademikų dėl jo pergalės kaltino populizmą, fanatizmą ir autoritarizmą. Šio darbo tikslas yra išanalizuoti socialinius ir ekonominius faktorius, kurie prisidėjo prie Donaldo Trumpo pergalės prezidento rinkimuose. Šiam tikslui pasiekti autorius panaudoja 2 mokslinius metodus: literatūros analizę ir diskurso analizę. Darbas yra suskirstytas į 2 pagrindines dalis. Pirmoje darbo dalyje literatūros analizėje aptariamos kultūrinės priešpriešos, ekonominių praradimų, klasių interesų konflikto ir tapatybės politikos teorijos. Šios teorijos bei jų atsispindėjimas Donaldo Trumpo retorikoje yra tyrimo objektas. Literatūros analizėje pateikiamos įžvalgos, kad amerikiečiai yra nuo šių problemų pavargę ir jų prislėgti. Pastebėtina, kad amerikiečių pažiūros ir balsavimo įpročiai ėmė keistis. Socialiai konservatyvūs amerikiečiai jaučiasi atskirti individualizmo ir laisvės pojūčio apsėstoje visuomenėje, jie nori, kad šeimos vertybės, tradiciniai lyčių vaidmenys, krikščionybė vėl būtų grąžinti į viešąjį gyvenimą. Šis darbas pirmoje dalyje pateikia argumentus, jog nelegali imigracija yra labai svarbus faktorius tiriant ir bandant analizuoti Donaldo Trumpo populiarumą. Visų pirma, nelegali imigracija turi svarbų vaidmenį kultūrinėje priešpriešoje, dėl jos seni, baltųjų rasės socialiniai konservatyvūs piliečiai pradeda jaustis svetimi savo miestuose ir kvartaluose. Be to, nelegali imigracija yra sietina su ekonominiais praradimais nelegalūs atvykėliai sutinka dirbti už mažesnį užmokestį ir užima darbo vietas bei taip sumažina atlyginimus amerikiečiams. Nelegali imigracija iš Lotynų Amerikos taip pat yra susijusi su klasių interesų konfliktu. Elitui nelegali imigracija yra naudinga, kai tuo metu darbininkų klasei ji kenkia, dėl to kyla priešprieša. Ekonominiai praradimai irgi užima svarbų vaidmenį Donaldo Trumpo iškilime. Darbe analizuojami rodikliai įrodo, kad viduriniosios klasės pajamos mažėja, pajamų nelygybė dabar yra dažnesnė, darbo vietų skaičius gamybos industrijoje ženkliai nukrito, daugiau žmonių gyvena už skurdo ribos. Šis darbas toliau aiškina, kad tiek Demokratai, tiek Respublikonai įsitraukia į tapatybės politiką, tapatybės taip pat suvaidino labai svarbų vaidmenį 2016 JAV prezidento rinkimuose. 5

6 Antroje darbo dalyje atlikta 4 Trumpo kalbų diskurso analizė parodė, kad visų keturių teorijų (kultūrinės priešpriešos, ekonominių praradimų, klasių interesų konflikto, tapatybės politikos) bruožai ir požymiai yra atspindėti Trumpo retorikoje. Iš kultūrinės priešpriešos, yra paminimi abortai ir tikėjimas, labai daug dėmesio skiriama nelegalios imigracijos problemai. Imigracija jo retorikoje labiau siejama su įstatymu ir tvarka negu kultūriniais dalykais, vis dėlto, šis darbas pateikia argumentus, kad kultūrinė priešprieša gali būti labai plačiai interpretuota ir pritaikyta. Trumpo kalboje taip pat labai ryškiai atspindimi ekonominiai praradimai, dėl kurių jis pats kaltina NAFTA prekybos sutartį ir globalizaciją, šiems praradimams aptarti Trumpas skiria daug laiko. Jo kalboje kaip klasių interesų konflikto požymis dažna anti-institucinė, anti-elitistinė retorika, bei stiprios nacionalizmo apraiškos, kaip konservatyvios tapatybės politikos dalis. Kaip galima pastebėti, Trumpo retorika atspindi minėtas keturias socialines ir ekonomines Amerikos problemas, todėl tai gali būti traktuojama kaip vienas iš paaiškinimų jo populiarumui. 6

7 List of graphs and tables Graph 1. Employment in US manufacturing sector , Graph 2. GINI score in United States Graph 3.Lakner-Milanovic graph (elephant curve) Graph 4. Percentage of USA population living at $1.90 a day Table 1. Cultural backlash, economic grievances, class war/anti-establishment and identity politics theories' presence in 4 Donald Trump speeches

8 INTRODUCTION Preface The rise of the Right-wing politics has been taking place in the whole Western democratic world approximately since 2011, for example, in UK, US, Hungary, Austria, Poland. One of the most dramatic political turns took a place in UK in In Tory party s organized Brexit referendum Brits actually voted to leave EU. The Brits were further not satisfied with Theresa May who tried to balance the interests of all parties and groups and could not convince all sides to agree on the leaving deal. As a result, Boris Johnson, who by media was labeled as quite provocative and eccentric, took her place. Boris Johnson by media has been called dangerously similar to Donald Trump 1 The rise of Right-wing politics in US and Europe has been one of the top political actualities in recent years. Both Brexit and the win of Donald Trump happened in For many 2016 was a wake-up year and since then, both tabloid media and academic community have been actively speculating about the reasons behind these events. Many people, even academics have been taking the recent rise of right-wing parties lightly and pragmatically. For example, Pei Shaohua in International Critical Thought 2 argued that Donald Trump win in presidential elections in 2016 is a result of white supremacism. The media was also quick to label electorate as neo-nazis, racists, misogynists. This paper, as well as Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart 3 argues that the rise of conservative parties did not happen because people suddenly turned bad, this phenomenon is rather a direct result of deep-rooted problems that have been bothering Western societies for several decades, such as poverty, inequality, unemployment, also the shift in values. This paper argues that the life of average citizen in recent decades has become worse. Thus, the new emerging Right-wing leaders with appealing rhetoric persuade people that their living will be made better, and issues will be solved which incumbent government are incapable and unwilling to do. 1 Fletcher, M. (2021). Why Boris Johnson is dangerously similar to Donald Trump. [online] Newstatesman. Available at: [Accessed 25 May 2021]. 2 Shaohua, P. (2017). White Supremacism and Racial Conflict in the Trump Era. International Critical Thought, [online] 7(4), pp Available at: [Accessed 30 Nov. 2020]. 3 Norris, P. and Inglehart, R.F. (2019). Cultural Backlash : Trump, Brexit, and authoritarian populism. Cambridge Etc.: Cambridge University Press. 8

9 Novelty and relevance of the topic: When Donald Trump won the US presidential elections in 2016, many people perceived it as a shocking turn since most experts predicted that Hilary Clinton would win. The turnout of the elections made many people look around and see that Donald Trump is not a single phenomenon, alternative conservative parties and leaders has already been rising in Western politics for some time: National Front with Marine Le Pen, UKIP with Nigel Farage, Fidesz with Victor Orban. However, it is relatively new phenomena. Changing political landscape signals that there are changes in society s attitude. It is important to find what is the cause, whether we are witnessing new trends caused by new problems or are these shifts made by old, deep rooted issues. This topic has been already researched by academics in the West, but in Lithuania it is new. Lithuanian academics have not yet looked at the rise of Right-wing parties through the lenses of cultural backlash, economic grievances, class conflict of interests and identity politics. The works about identity politics and class conflict of interests have already sparked the interest in the West, both theories were reviewed by Washington Post columnists, however, Lithuanian science community has yet to catch up. Goal: To analyze social and economic conditions that encourage people to vote for Donald Trump and to reveal how these conditions are reflected in his speeches. Object: The social, and economic conditions that influenced the rise of Donald Trump Tasks: 1. To review the Silent Revolution theory and research how Silent Revolution later connected to cultural backlash. 2. To explore what is economic grievances theory, how economic grievances occur and influence support for Donald Trump. 3. To find how class cleavage unfolds in the modern society and how it relates to support for Donald Trump. 4. To analyze how the identity politics unfolds on political right and political left and whether it plays a role in Donald Trump s popularity. 5. To make a discourse analysis of 4 official Donald Trump s speeches and reveal how cultural backlash, economic grievances, class conflict/anti-establishment and identity politics theories are reflected in his speeches. 9

10 Research problem: The rise of the Right-Wing politics has attracted attention since Brexit referendum and the win of Donald Trump in 2016 presidential elections. The research focused on what processes and circumstances took place in the political system and especially in Republican party, in conservative movement, that a businessman, eccentric TV series The Apprentice host was nominated as a Republican candidate for presidential elections. For example, academic Daniel S. Lucks wrote a monography Reconsidering Reagan : racism, Republicans, and the road to Trump 4 He discussed what changes took place in the Republican movement that it gave birth to such leader as Trump. Other academics were quick to label the rise of Trump as the rise of authoritarianism or fascism, for example, the work of Yale academic Jason Stanley How Fascism Works: The Politics of Us and Them 5 which argues that the rule of Donald Trump is our days fascism. Douglas Kellner in his chapter of monography Critical Theory and Authoritarian Populism also called Donald Trump an authoritarian leader. 6 These works focused on the features of populism, authoritarianism and fascism in Trump s discourse and decisions. However, these works naturally make their reader raise a question why so-called authoritarian, fascist leader as Trump has gained such a momentum, why MAGA has attracted thousands of Americans, what factors draw people to such leaders as Donald Trump. Unfortunately, there is a lack of explanation for it. If we had an explanation what factors and conditions encourage people to support Donald Trump, we would we able to better predict whether he will come back in 2024 presidential elections, or maybe we will see a similar leader rising. Therefore, the author of this work deem it important to research what social and economic conditions influenced the rise of Donald Trump. Research questions: 1. What social and economic conditions influenced Donald Trump s victory in 2016 presidential elections? 2. How these conditions unfold in Donald Trump s rhetoric? 4 Lucks, D.S. (2020). Reconsidering Reagan : racism, Republicans, and the road to Trump. Boston, Massachusetts: Beacon Press. 5 Stanley, J. (2018). How fascism works : the politics of us and them. New York: Random House. 6 Morelock, J. ed., (2018). Critical theory and authoritarian populism. London: University Of Westminster Press. 10

11 Defended statements: 1. The rise of Donald Trump is a result of cultural backlash, economic grievances, class war and identity politics. 2. Donald Trump s rhetoric reflects these 4 mentioned theories. Research methods: In the first part of the research author implements literature analysis of academic works and descriptive secondary quantitative data analysis of economic and social indicators. These methods are cheap and reliable, they are needed to establish theoretical basis for further empirical research in the second part. Second part of the work involves empirical method. Author develops discourse analysis because it is reliable, cheap, allows to study the interaction, contents and social context of the speech. It allows to gain a unique insight into the speeches of Donald Trump and how they reflect social and economic conditions that are researched in the first part of the work. Research source base: The first part of the work literature analysis is based on 1) Pippa Norris and Inglehart monography Cultural Backlash 7 because it is the newest and most comprehensive study which examines the discourse and ideas of Western right-wing leaders. It analyses cultural backlash theory, impact of immigration and economic insecurity. 2) Second source is Inglehart s monography The silent revolution 8, it examines the shift in electorate s values and culture since the WW2. 3) Third study is Inglehart s and Baker s Modernization, Cultural Change, and the Persistence of Traditional Values 9 which analyzed how modernization leads to shift towards traditional norms and conservatism. 4) Further, this paper will analyze ideas of Francis Fukuyama article Against Identity politics 10 which explored the issues of economic insecurity and political correctness. 5) In the paper author also analyzes Fukuyama s book Identity : the demand for dignity and the politics of resentment 11 which is a sequal of his mentioned article. Additionally, the analysis 7 Norris, P. and Inglehart, R.F. (2019). Cultural Backlash : Trump, Brexit, and authoritarian populism. Cambridge Etc.: Cambridge University Press. 8 Inglehart, R. (1977). The silent revolution : changing values and political styles among Western publics. Princeton, New Jersey Princeton University Press. 9 Inglehart, R. and Baker, W.E. (2000). Modernization, Cultural Change, and the Persistence of Traditional Values. American Sociological Review, [online] 65(1), p.28. Available at: [Accessed 7 Nov. 2020]. 10 Fukuyama, F. (2018). Against Identity Politics. The New Tribalism and the Crisis of Democracy. Foreign Affairs, 95(7), pp Fukuyama, F. (2018). Identity : The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment. New York: Farrar, Straus And Giroux. 11

12 will be made of 6) Christopher Lasch The revolt of the elites and the betrayal democracy 12 and 7) Michael Lind book The New Class War: Saving Democracy from the Managerial Elite 13 Both books reflect on the modern class war between the working class and elites. Secondary quantitative data will be cited from OECD, Worldbank and Pew Research Center. Second part of the work is based on discourse analysis, for this purpose author used speech transcripts from Time.com, Vox.com, CNN.com Structure of the paper: 1. First part of the work involves literature analysis, it is composed of 4 chapters. First chapter analyses Silent Revolution and cultural backlash. It explains how modernization has caused the shift toward liberalism and how many people (usually old, white, religious, working class) were left marginalized in a modern godless society obsessed with freedom and individualism that has abolished religion, tradition and family values. Second chapter review economic grievances theory, it examines how growing economic inequality and insecurity, decline of the middle class, is responsible for the support for right wing leaders, this part will describe GINI and other social indicators. Third chapter explores modern class war, how working class and elites are clashing over illegal immigration. Forth chapter explains how excessive limitations of free speech and political correctness in US is contributing to the popularity of Donald Trump and how conservatives become protectors of free speech, its further analysis how identity politics unfolds on the political right and political left and how it is exploited for political games. 2. Second part of the work involves empirical method discourse analysis. Researcher examines how all in the first part described social and economic conditions unfold in the rhetoric of Donald Trump. The analysis is made of 4 official speeches from period. 12 Lasch, C. (1996). The revolt of the elites and the betrayal democracy. New York: W.W. Norton. 13 Lind, M. (2020). The New Class War: Saving Democracy from the Managerial Elite. Portfolio - Penguin Randon House. 12

13 1. THEORETICAL ANALYSIS 1.1 The Right-wing politics, Trump, and the role of Silent Revolution and Cultural Backlash Discussing social changes, it is necessary to acknowledge a work of Ronald Inglehart who first formulated the thesis of Silent Revolution 14 in In the book he argued that after the WW2 US became modern post-industrial society where majority of labor force worked in the service sector. People had economic and physical security, access to tertiary education. Thus, when no longer lived in scarcity or danger, population started to pay attention to such topics as environmentalism, human rights, self-expression. In 1950 s s Malcolm X and Martin Luther King Jr raised, but both were murdered. Feminist icon Betty Friedan sparked the second wave of feminism with her book The Feminine Mystique in LGBT community started forming in 1980 s. The new generation of kids born at these times had completely different attitudes than their interwar generation family members, Inglehart called this process intergenerational shift towards postmodern values 15 The same process followed in Europe, but a bit later because Europe was devastated by war. What happened later can be called cultural backlash and is much related with the changing ethnic and racial landscape in Western countries. In 2015, in the advanced countries of North America and Europe, foreign born population was twice bigger than in Together with themselves migrants bring their own language, culture and norms, for example, new-comers might follow Sharia law, Westerners later have to acknowledge and tolerate it. Further, white population has lower fertility rates than migrants from the Middle East, Latin America, or Africa and this leads to the tendency that white native part of the Western population is ageing and shrinking. As a consequence, some people, especially from interwar or boomer generation, start feeling like the strangers in their own country they feel that their ethnic, religious, or racial group is no longer prevailing, and they feel threatened. When quite popular politician Ilhan Omar was elected to the lower chamber of US parliament in 2017, the fact that she was a hijab-wearing, Muslim refugee, born 14 Inglehart, R. (1977). The silent revolution : changing values and political styles among Western publics. Princeton, New Jersey Princeton University Press. 15 Inglehart, op. cit. 16 Norris, P. and Inglehart, R.F. (2019). Cultural Backlash : Trump, Brexit, and authoritarian populism. Cambridge Etc.: Cambridge University Press., p

14 in Somalia drew much attention and hate. Some citizens had big concerns that not only their country is overcrowded with immigrants, now it is ruled by them. The faster is the change in values and culture, the bigger the threat it is perceived. 17 This is how cultural backlash emerges. Mentioned group of people -social conservatives (we can call them social conservatives because they support traditional male and female role, want Christian norms to be accepted in public life and politics, acknowledge only heterosexual orientation and 2 genders, etc.) sometimes become segregated by their own choice they don t socialize with persons of different skin color, religion, sexual orientation, avoid participating in a public life. They hang out in the close communities with like-minded, same thinking individuals, and these Facebook, Parler or real-life groups become closed echo chambers, where people gradually become more and more radical because they get ideological support from each other. Important to notice, that Inglehart s Silent Revolution peculiarly predicted similar thing to what Fukuyama called the end of history the increase in economic well-being was supposed to lead to deeper democratic consolidation and universal support for liberal values, liberalism was supposed to be the end point of political and ideological evolution in Western countries. From one perspective, that prediction came true, because now North American and European political systems have become liberal democracies, from other perspective, prediction is false because significantly great backlash is emerging against liberalism and leftism in US and other countries, some used-to-be liberal democracies like Poland and Hungary are disintegrating. Immigration is playing a significant role there. Immigration is a sensitive issue not only in US, but also UK, Hungary Poland, Sweden, Austria. When majority is afraid to loose its prevailing status, it creates a bottom-up policy demand to politicians to take action, and if the traditional political parties do not respond to this demand, new right wing parties and leaders appear that promise to restrict immigration and bring the good old life back like, for example, Donald Trump with Make America great again slogan. As Norris and Inglehart 18 argue in their book, 40 years ago political arena was dominated by economic issues such as taxes, trade unions, government role in the economy, welfare programs, wages, because main political parties were established in the 20th century on the economic basis. 17 Norris and Inglehart op. cit. p Norris and Inglehart op. cit. p

15 However, other authors oppose this idea, they argue that USA has a very diverse, heterogeneous society, thus, in both 20th and 21st centuries the biggest cleavage has been cultural not economic, or, as Merkel called, the conflict between subject and dominant culture 19, for example LGBT or queer culture versus cis, straight culture. Black people, ghetto culture versus white American culture, indigenous tribes versus urban American culture. The high importance of cultural cleavages in US can be supported by a number of works. Rae in 1992 wrote that American cleavages are based on questions of region, race, ethnicity, religion and morality, rather than questions of economic power or distribution of the national wealth. 20 He further insisted that even different citizens expectations for US foreign policy were also rooted in cultural differences. Cultural cleavages, according to Rae, emerged soon after the era of the Roosevelt s New Deal ended in 1952, because during New Deal, cultural politics were stamped out. The importance of cultural issues in the 2nd half of 20th century was mentioned in Inglehart s Silent Revolution, how counter-culture emerged that was radically different from interwar generation: people, when no longer lived in economic scarcity, started caring about sexual minorities, women rights, struggle of black people. Brooks and Manza 21 in 1997 performed a mathematical modelling and also concluded that during presidential elections the most important cleavages were cultural race and religion while class differences were not important. The severity of cultural cleavage these days can be confirmed by Pippa Norris Cultural Backlash theory, which was already discussed in this work. Considering cultural cleavage, race and LGBTQ have become the most important cultural issues recently, others would call it the issues of human rights. Thus, in the changed environment now there is a way to channel cultural resistance. As mentioned in the previous chapter, there are sizable groups of people social conservatives, who have lost or are at the risk of losing the job, they see their religion being abolished in the politics and the public life, their status of supreme white dominant group is in decline, their language is policed as they can no longer express their controversial views about homosexuals, women or black people without consequences. These people often feel resentful and miss the good 19 Merkl, P.H. (1969). Political Cleavages and Party Systems. World Politics, [online] 21(3), pp Available at: [Accessed 20 Feb. 2020]. 20 Rae, N.C. (1992). Class and Culture: American Political Cleavages in the Twentieth Century. The Western Political Quarterly, [online] 45(3), p.629. Available at: [Accessed 27 Feb. 2021]. 21 Brooks, C. and Manza, J. (1997). Social Cleavages and Political Alignments: U.S. Presidential Elections, 1960 to American Sociological Review, [online] 62(6), p.937. Available at: [Accessed 27 Feb. 2021]. 15

16 old times when they were young and the world was different, Fukuyama argues: People who feel this way can be seduced by leaders who tell them that they have been betrayed and disrespected by existing power structures and that they are members of important communities whose greatness will again be recognized 22 As can be seen, it is easy for right and far right parties to take advantage of these individuals and translate their resentment into votes. During society in US experienced big religion cleavage and it experiences the same cleavage today, but first it is necessary to explain the state and church relations in United States. According to Laycock 23, United States have secularist government, but US secularism is different from French principle of laïcité, Americans themselves prefer to call it simply separation. Separation means that government does not promote religious organizations and also does not disrupt them, religion is voluntary and not obligatory. However, presidents are free to have spiritual advisors, public officials are allowed to propagate their religious beliefs. In United States religious freedom is vitally important and is protected by the 1 st Amendment of Constitution: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; < > 24 Laycock argues that United States never had leading, prevailing national church. According to statistics 25, Christians compose 70.6% of population. The biggest branch of the church is evangelical protestants (25.4%) the second are Catholics (20.8%). Since United States were colonized by Britain, from British history they inherited the conflict between protestants and Catholics, the cleavage exists regarding the dilemma which branch of Christianity should be taught in public schools. When the Silent Revolution started in 1960 s, another religion cleavage emerged between church and state. As Laycock explains the president office was in the center of this conflict because religious Americans opposed Silent Revolution: Culturally conservative religious believers of all faiths-evangelical Protestants, conservative Catholics, Orthodox Jews-resisted the sexual revolution, the general attitude of permissiveness, and the sense of social disorder associated with demonstrations, crime, and riots; 22 Fukuyama op. cit. p Laycock, D. (2006). Church and State in the United States: Competing Conceptions and Historic Changes. Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, [online] 13(2), p.504. Available at: 335&context=ijgls [Accessed 7 Mar. 2021]. 24 Cornell Law School (2017). First Amendment. [online] LII / Legal Information Institute. Available at: [Accessed 7 Mar. 2021]. 25 Pew Research Center (2019). Religion in America: U.S. Religious Data, Demographics and Statistics. [online] Pew Research Center s Religion & Public Life Project. Available at: [Accessed 7 Mar. 2021]. 16

17 they were especially horrified by the right to abortion.: 26 and began voting for conservative presidents starting with Ronald Regan. Roe v. Wade decision especially deepened the cleavage between state and church at that time. In 1973 Supreme Court stated that woman has a right to abortion under many occasions. Today for many Americans it is very important that their presidential candidate would be religious, because it relates with being upright and being a person of good moral character. However, Trump was none of those, he did not attend church, had 3 wives, and was involved in a number of sexual scandals. Yet in 2016 presidential election 81% 27 of white Evangelicals voted for Trump. One way to explain it, he was in the center of church and state cleavage and was used as a tool to implement evangelical agenda, another prevailing opinion is that evangelicals were just picking the lesser of 2 evils, as Hilary Clinton completely did not fit their ideology. Evangelicals taking the side of the more conservative candidate is not a new occurrence, statistics 28 show that 78% voted for Bush in 2004, 78% voted for McCain in 2008, 78% voted for Romney in Evangelicals were unhappy that God is being pushed out of public life and politics, new political agenda does not fit Biblical teachings, for example, during Obama term, states widely legalized gay marriage, some legalized recreational marijuana use, abortion rights were supported on the basis of Roe v. Wade. Many Evangelicals claim that it is becoming harder to be Christian nowadays 29, they are further unhappy that children no longer pray in schools. Religious people view the current society in moral anarchy: without a set of unquestioned dogmas, they say, people lose their moral bearings. Good and evil become more or less indistinguishable; everything is permitted; old injunctions are defied with impunity. 30 Religious communities claim that religion is necessary because it strengthen the community and provide moral basis, but secularists disagree with that saying that religion also encourages intolerance, since a specific religious group believe that they know the absolute undisputable truth and force others to conform Laycock, op. cit. p Martínez, J. and Smith, G.A. (2016). How the faithful voted: A preliminary 2016 analysis. [online] Pew Research Center. Available at: analysis/ [Accessed 7 Mar. 2021]. 28 Martinez and Smith, op.cit. 29 Lipka, M. (2016). Evangelicals increasingly say it s becoming harder for them in America. [online] Pew Research Center. Available at: [Accessed 7 Mar. 2021]. 30 Lasch, C. (1996). The revolt of the elites and the betrayal democracy. New York: W.W. Norton, p Lasch, op. cit. p

18 1.2 Economic grievances impact on the rise of Right-wing politics The rise of the conservative politics is caused by declining wealth of the middle and the lower classes, because modernization at some point damaged their financial well-being, left people jobless, then due to globalization capital and workplaces have left the country leaving even more people unemployed and incapable of finding job. It is economic grievances theory, Pippa Norris explains it this way: least prosperous citizens in advanced industrialized economies the losers from globalization provide the strongest support for authoritarian and populist values 32. (*Norris here speaks about the rise of Trump, which in her work she identified as authoritarian populist) Economic grievances theory is not hard to illustrate, for example, automobile industry during Silent Revolution was in decline, especially in Detroit, as a result, many people became jobless. However, automobile industry decline was just a beginning. As seen in graph 1, Since 2000 s the whole US manufacturing industry is in decline taking away the income from lower and middle class workers, graph reveals that in 30 years approximately 5 million jobs in manufacturing have been lost, Financial times report that UK lost roughly 4 million 33 manufacturing jobs during Graph 1. Employment in US manufacturing sector Source 1: FRED economic data ( As Inglehart wrote in his later work: When survival is uncertain, cultural diversity seems threatening. When there isn't "enough to go around," foreigners are seen as dangerous outsiders who 32 Norris, op. cit. P Jackson, G. (2018). Manufacturing enjoys longest period of jobs growth for 40 years. [online] Financial Times. Available at: [Accessed 23 Mar. 2020]. 18

19 may take away one's sustenance. People cling to traditional gender roles and sexual norms, and emphasize absolute rules and familiar norms in an attempt to maximize predictability in an uncertain world 34 In consequence, Inglehart ideas formulated 20 years ago can still accurately explain what is happening today and why Donald Trump, or Brexit party were elected. Both promised to bring back the jobs that were stolen by immigrants, Trump in particular promised to revive the heavy industries and manufacturing which made him a beloved candidate for many lower class, white, conservative, religious males. Even though in Silent Revolution it was said that people no longer have to live in scarcity, citizens face financial problems, and their scope is wider than just decline of manufacturing industry. These aforementioned problems also contribute to the rise of conservative parties and leaders. Economic grievances theory could explain, why not only interwar and boomer generation, but also millennials choose to vote for conservative parties. The issue was firstly addressed in Fukuyama article Against Identity Politics 35 (2018). The declining economic well- being best explained in OECD report Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class 36 (2019). In fact, the global GDP has grown enormously in the last 60 years: from $1.369 trillion in 1960 to $ trillion in On the other hand, income gap and economic inequality grew together with gross domestic product. In many developed countries middle class is declining, one of the examples is USA. According to OECD report, 1 in 6 middle-income workers are in jobs that are at high risk of automation 38 This statistic indicates economic insecurity among middle class. OECD research also exposed that more than 1 of 3 persons are economically vulnerable, which means that they lack money to maintain a living standard at the poverty level 39 for at least several months. These numbers even further support economic grievances theory. Likewise, the cost of living and 34 Inglehart, R. and Baker, W.E. (2000). Modernization, Cultural Change, and the Persistence of Traditional Values. American Sociological Review, [online] 65(1), p.28. Available at: [Accessed 7 Nov. 2020]. 35 Fukuyama, F. (2018). Against Identity Politics. The New Tribalism and the Crisis of Democracy. Foreign Affairs, 95(7), pp OECD (2019). Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class. [online] OECD ilibrary. Available at: [Accessed 19 Sep. 2020]. 37 Worldbank.org. (2010). GDP (current US$) Data. [online] Available at: [Accessed 19 Sep. 2020]. 38 OECD report op. cit. 39 OECD report op. cit. 19

20 housing has risen significantly more than the income 40, people are afraid to lose their jobs and financial status, they struggle to live under unfair economic system. GINI score which represents income and wealth distribution among the population reveals income inequality in United States. It is accepted to believe that up to 20 points the level of equality is perfect, is good, 40 points is a line when income gap in a country becomes too big and it can cause social tensions or civil unrest. Graph 2. GINI score in United States Source 2: Worldbank data ( As can be seen in a graph 2, US crossed 40 points line in the Since 2010, the score is further growing. To compare with other developed countries, US has the highest GINI score in G7: Germany latest score is 35.1, Canada 35.2, UK 39.2, France In fact, US and UK scores are more similar with countries in Latin America, but Latin America has underdeveloped, manufacturing and agriculture-based economies. Therefore, it is a unique case to see service based, modern economies of UK and US fall in line with South America. As can be seen from graph 2, the trouble started during the last several decades of 20th century. Christopher Lasch in 1996 was the first one to talk about it when he wrote a book The 40 Hoffower, H. (2019). Income for young adults has grown by just $29 since 1974 nowhere close to keeping up with skyrocketing housing costs and the crushing size of student-loan debt. Business Insider. [online] Available at: [Accessed 9 Nov. 2020]. 41 Schaeffer, K. (2020). 6 facts about economic inequality in the U.S. [online] Pew Research Center. Available at: [Accessed 19 Nov. 2020]. 20

21 Revolt of the Elites and the Betrayal of Democracy, 42 then he died and never saw his book published. While being alive in his work Lasch identified 3 problems. The first problem was that the upper class was accumulating too much wealth. The top 20% richest Americans owned half of the whole country s wealth 43. It meant they had a lot of power and influence, as Lasch explains when money talks, everybody else is condemned to listen. 44 According to him, unlimited accumulation of wealth is hurting democracy, we cannot have social and civil equality without at least approximate economic equality. In a healthy democracy wealth has to be distributed as widely as possible 45. Second problem was the decline of the middle class and decreasing income, it became harder to find full time job, as Lasch explains, during his time ( ) the number of part time jobs increased 2 times and accounted for 25% of all jobs 46. Even if a high school graduate was lucky to find a full-time job, he could not expect to make the same money as a decade or two ago. Income was dropping. In 1973 high school graduate could make $ per year or ~$2670 per month, but in 1987 only $ per year or ~$2330 per month 47. The last third problem is how we view the work of the people. For example, 60 years ago, the builder, welder, driver, used to walk the head held high on the Americans streets. They were seen and recognized, they were respected, Lasch argues that now we respect only the clean jobs, jobs in the warm, fancy office with a table, computer, and a cup of coffee. The so called dirty jobs and the workers like janitor, bricklayer, locksmith we no longer value and we look down upon them. 48 Therefore, declining income and financial inequality, are not the only problems. Big issue is that certain workers feel demeaned and disgraced. The Lakner-Milanovic graph (elephant curve) below shows the stagnating income growth of the American middle class during 2 decades ( ). It illustrates Lasch s explained problems. Graph exposes global inequality caused by globalization. As can be seen from Pew Research center added comments on the graph, the poorest people in undeveloped countries and middle classes in Western countries beared no fruits from the global economic growth, while emerging economies as 42 Lasch, C. (1996). The revolt of the elites and the betrayal democracy. New York: W.W. Norton, Kindle edition. 43 Lasch, op. cit. p Lasch op. cit. p Lasch. op cit. p Lasch op. cit. p Lasch op. cit. p Lasch op. cit. p

22 China and global elites enjoyed booming growth of their income. It can be concluded that American middle class was left behind. Graph 3. Lakner-Milanovic graph (elephant curve) Source 3: Pew Research Center ( Furthermore, not only inequality became more common, but the poverty itself. As can be seen in graph 4, since 1994 the number of people living at $1.90 a day has doubled. The number increased from 0.5% to 1%. Looking at percentage, it is not much, but considering the fact that US population is 331, 002, , 1% accounts for people. $1.90 a day is recognized as international poverty line. Thus, US have over 3 million people that live at the international poverty line or below it. Another 1.7% have to live at $ a day, it accounts for people. Likewise, in 2019 Cato institute conducted a survey which revealed that 63% of Americans Were Worried They Couldn t Pay Bills in Past Year Worldometers (2019). U.S. Population. [online] Available at: 50 Worldbank data. (n.d.). Poverty headcount ratio at $5.50 a day (% of population) - United States. [online] Available at: 51 Ekins, E. (2019). Survey Report. What Americans Think About Poverty, Wealth, and Work. [online] Cato Institute. Available at: [Accessed 20 Nov. 2020]. 22

23 Graph 4. Percentage of USA population living at $1.90 a day Source 4: Worldbank ( As Fukuyama writes in his book s chapter Invisible man 52, loosing income and becoming poor is scary, but the issue is not about the resources, the true problem is that poverty takes away one s dignity, status and make people invisible, as Fukuyama explains: to be poor is to be invisible to your fellow human beings, and the indignity of invisibility is often worse than the lack of resources. 53 A simple example of this invisibility is a scene all of us have seen: a homeless man sitting on the sidewalk, everyone walks by him acting he like isn t there, like he doesn t exist at all. Fukuyama further argues that humans are thymotic, meaning we need recognition from other individuals and our economic motivation is powered by this strive for recognition, strive for dignity and status 54. Author also points out that the previously mentioned decline of middle class is a serious, destabilizing issue. We are used to think that revolutions and uprisings are caused by desperate, hungry, poor people, but according to Fukuyama, it is not true. Poor people are uneducated disorganized and do not have spare time, because they are too busy caring for their survival. Meanwhile, middle class is educated, has enough time, can be well organized and most importantly 52 Fukuyama, F. (2018). Identity : the demand for dignity and the politics of resentment. New York: Farrar, Straus And Giroux, Kindle Edition. pp Fukuyama op. cit. p Fukuyama op cit. p

24 they believe that they are entitled to respect because they pay taxes, raise children, are beneficial to the country and constitute the country as a whole. They are very sensitive to the loss of status and dignity, therefore, it is the unsatisfied, humiliated and angry middle class that usually causes the uprisings. 55 Fukuyama argues that Afro-Americans were hit especially hard by economic decline. 56 After WW2 they arrived to Detroit, New York and Chicago where they sought jobs in steel, automobile and other industries. However, modernization and automatization trends were also followed by deindustrialization. Economy has become digital, manufacturing industries closed, as discussed in graph 1, millions left unemployed. It caused a series of interconnected social problems: rising crime rates and violence on the streets, people not able to get employed and dependent on food stamps, alcohol and substances abuse, and also opioid crisis because unemployed and destitute individuals could not afford to see a doctor, they didn t have healthcare plans or had poor plans. The black community started transmitting this poverty and bad lifestyle from one generation to another. In the last several decades, these problems have spread to the white people population as well. Fukuyama explains that mentioned invisibility had lead to the rise of Donald Trump. 57 People think that elites don t see them and don t care about their problems. They needed a leader who would come up and say: I see you all, I want to know you, I understand your problems, I will try to help. Donald Trump and other nationalists agenda can be called politics of dignity and resentment: The nationalist can translate loss of relative economic position into loss of identity and status: you have always been a core member of our great nation, but foreigners, immigrants, and your own elite compatriots have been conspiring to hold you down; your country is no longer your own, and you are not respected in your own land. 58 The rise of the right wing politics is further related with the changed political direction of the left, the left no longer seeks to unite and lift the working class and poor people, but rather has engaged in identity politics, now they focus on small groups that are marginalized in various ways, for example, LGBTQ. 59 It is important to mention that not only conservatives, but other political groups are affected by poverty and inequality too, therefore radical ideas start rising in all groups, especially on the left, 55 Fukuyama op. cit. pp Fukuyama op. cit. p Fukuyama op. Cit. P Fukuyama op. cit. p Fukuyama op. cit. p