KETVIRTINIS BIULETENIS QUARTERLY BULLETIN 2005 / 1 VILNIUS 2005
ISSN 1648-7133 ISSN 1648-8954 (ONLINE) Lietuvos bankas, 2005
Sutartiniai þenklai Symbols and Conventions Santrumpos Abbreviations _ Reiðkinio (rodiklio) atitinkamu laikotarpiu nebuvo Category not applicable 0,0 Rodiklio dydis yra maþesnis kaip 0,05 Magnitude less than 0.05... Nëra duomenø, nors reiðkinys (rodiklis) atitinkamu laikotarpiu buvo Data not available * Iðankstiniai arba apskaièiuoti duomenys Preliminary or estimated figure Nurodo laikotarpá tarp metø ar mënesiø (pvz., 1992 1993 m., sausio balandþio mën., 3 6 mën.), paþymint jo pradþià ir pabaigà Between years or months (e.g., 1992 1993, January April or 3 6 months) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months LB Lt LTL ct TVF IMF VVP GS TAB BIS Lietuvos bankas The Bank of Lithuania Litas Lithuanian litas Centas Lithuanian cent Tarptautinis valiutos fondas International Monetary Fund Vyriausybës vertybiniai popieriai Government Securities Tarptautiniø atsiskaitymø bankas Bank of International Settlements ES-15 Europos Sàjungos ðalys iki 2004 m. geguþës 1 d. EU-15 European Union Member States until 1 May 2004 ES-25 Europos Sàjungos ðalys po 2004 m. geguþës 1 d. EU-25 European Union Member States after 1 May 2004 Pasaulio ðaliø valiutos Foreign Currencies BYR DKK GBP EEK EUR USD KZT Baltarusijos rublis Belarussian ruble Danijos krona Danish krone Didþiosios Britanijos svaras sterlingø Pound sterling Estijos krona Estonian kroon Euras Euro JAV doleris United States dollar Kazachstano tengë Kazakhstan tenge LVL PLN RUB XDR SEK UAH Latvijos latas Latvian lats Lenkijos zlotas Polish zloty Rusijos rublis Russian ruble (new) Specialiàja skolinimosi teise pavadintas apskaitos vienetas, pagrindiniø pasaulio valiutø krepðelis (SST) SDR (I.M.F.) Ðvedijos krona Swedish krona Ukrainos grivina Ukrainian hryvnia
Biuletenyje pateikti Lietuvos banko departamentø, Statistikos departamento prie Lietuvos Respublikos Vyriausybës, Finansø ministerijos, Vilniaus vertybiniø popieriø birþos duomenys. Lenteliø ir grafikø ðaltinis, jeigu kitaip nenurodyta, yra Lietuvos banko departamentø duomenys. Toliau buvo pertvarkoma bankø atskaitomybë. Dël to kai kurie duomenys, skelbti ankstesniuose LB biuleteniuose, patikslinti. Kai kuriose lentelëse dël apvalinimo eiluèiø suma nesutampa su duomenimis ið viso. Biuletená parengë Lietuvos banko Statistikos departamentas. Atsakingas uþ parengimà V. Trukðinas (tel. (8 ~ 5) 268 04 00, faksas (8 ~ 5) 268 04 28). The Bulletin contains information from the Ministry of Finance, the Department of Statistics to the Government of the Republic of Lithuania, the Vilnius Stock Exchange of Lithuania, and the departments of the Bank of Lithuania. The tables and graphs have been prepared on the basis of the data of the departments of the Bank of Lithuania, unless stated otherwise. Reformation of banks accountability was going on at the Bank of Lithuania. Because of these changes some data published in the previous issues of the Bulletin of the Bank of Lithuania have been revised. Some of the totals in the tables do not correspond to the sums of lines due to roundings. This Bulletin was prepared by the Statistics Department of the Bank of Lithuania. V. Trukðinas (Tel. +370 5 268 04 00, Fax +370 5 268 04 28) is responsible for the preparation of the Bulletin.
TURINYS CONTENTS LIETUVOS EKONOMIKOS RAIDA Bendroji ûkio apþvalga / 6 Kainos / 7 Uþsienio prekyba / 8 Efektyviøjø lito kursø indeksai / 9 Mokëjimø balansas / 10 LIETUVOS FINANSØ RINKOS APÞVALGA Bendrieji bankø rodikliai / 12 Lietuvos banko balanso apþvalga / 12 Konsoliduoto kredito ástaigø balanso apþvalga / 12 Pinigø apþvalga / 15 Mokëjimø priemonës / 15 Vertybiniø popieriø rinka / 16 Valiutø rinkos apyvarta / 17 Centrinës valdþios skola / 18 LENTELËS 1. BENDRIEJI RODIKLIAI 1.1. Lietuvos banko balansas / 34 1.2. Oficialiosios tarptautinës atsargos / 36 1.3. Konsoliduotas kredito ástaigø balansas / 37 2. PASKOLOS 2.1. Paskolos / 44 2.2. Trumpalaikës paskolos / 45 2.3. Ilgalaikës paskolos / 46 2.4. Paskolø struktûra gràþinimo terminais / 47 2.5. Paskolos ekonominëms veikloms / 48 3. INDËLIAI 3.1. Indëliai / 49 3.2. Indëliai iki pareikalavimo / 50 3.3. Terminuotieji indëliai / 51 3.4. Terminuotøjø indëliø struktûra gràþinimo terminais / 52 3.5. Fiziniø asmenø indëliai / 53 3.6. Fiziniø asmenø indëliai iki pareikalavimo / 54 3.7. Fiziniø asmenø terminuotieji indëliai / 55 3.8. Fiziniø asmenø terminuotøjø indëliø struktûra gràþinimo terminais / 56 4. PINIGAI 4.1. Pinigø apþvalga / 57 4.2. Pinigø kiekis / 61 4.3. Pinigø elementø struktûra / 62 5. MOKËJIMAI NEGRYNAISIAIS PINIGAIS 5.1. Mokëjimai negrynaisiais pinigais / 63 5.2. Kredito pervedimai / 69 5.3. Banko kortelës / 72 5.4. Bankomatai ir korteliø skaitytuvai / 73 6. VYRIAUSYBËS VERTYBINIAI POPIERIAI 6.1. Vyriausybës vertybiniai popieriai / 74 6.2. Vidutinis Vyriausybës vertybiniø popieriø pelningumas aukcionuose / 76 7. PINIGØ IR VALIUTØ RINKA 7.1. Valiutø rinkos apyvarta / 77 7.2. Valiutø rinkos apyvarta pagal sandoriø dalyvius / 78 7.3. Tarpbankinio skolinimo rinka / 79 7.4. Oficialûs uþsienio valiutø santykiai / 81 8. MOKËJIMØ BALANSAS 8.1. Mokëjimø balansas / 85 8.2. Tarptautinës investicijos / 87 9. UÞSIENIO PREKYBA 9.1. Uþsienio prekyba 2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá / 88 10. LIETUVOS EKONOMIKOS RAIDA 10.1. Kai kurie ekonominës raidos rodikliai / 89 11. KAI KURIØ RODIKLIØ PAAIÐKINIMAI / 92 DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY OF LITHUANIA General Review of the Economy / 19 Prices / 20 Foreign Trade / 21 Effective Exchange Rate Indices of the Litas / 21 Balance of Payments / 22 REVIEW OF THE LITHUANIAN FINANCIAL MARKET General Indices of Banks / 25 Review of the Bank of Lithuania Balance Sheet / 25 Review of the Consolidated Balance Sheet of Credit Institutions / 25 Banking Survey / 28 Payment Instruments / 29 Securities Market / 29 Foreign Exchange Market Turnover / 30 Central Government Debt / 31 TABLES 1. GENERAL INDICATORS 1.1. Balance Sheet of the Bank of Lithuania / 34 1.2. Official Reserve Assets / 36 1.3. Consolidated Balance Sheet of Credit Institutions / 37 2. LOANS 2.1. Loans / 44 2.2. Short-term Loans / 45 2.3. Long-term Loans / 46 2.4. Composition of Loans by Residual Maturity / 47 2.5. Loans by Economic Activities / 48 3. DEPOSITS 3.1. Deposits / 49 3.2. Demand Deposits / 50 3.3. Time Deposits / 51 3.4. Composition of Time Deposits by Residual Maturity / 52 3.5. Individuals Deposits / 53 3.6. Individuals Demand Deposits / 54 3.7. Individuals Time Deposits / 55 3.8. Composition of Individuals Time Deposits by Residual Maturity / 56 4. MONEY 4.1. Banking Survey / 57 4.2. Money Supply / 61 4.3. Composition of Monetary Aggregates / 62 5. NON-CASH PAYMENTS 5.1. Non-cash Payments / 63 5.2. Credit Transfers / 69 5.3. Bank Payment Cards / 72 5.4. ATMs and POS-terminals / 73 6. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 6.1. Government Securities / 74 6.2. Average Yield of Government Securities at Auctions / 76 7. MONEY AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET 7.1. Foreign Exchange Market Turnover / 77 7.2. Foreign Exchange Market Turnover by Counterparty of Transactions / 78 7.3. Interbank Lending Market / 79 7.4. Official Foreign Exchange Rates / 81 8. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 8.1. Balance of Payments / 85 8.2. International Investment Position / 87 9. FOREIGN TRADE 9.1. Foreign Trade in January-March 2005 / 88 10. DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMY OF LITHUANIA 10.1. Some Economic Indicators / 89 11. GLOSSARY / 95
LIETUVOS EKONOMIKOS RAIDA BENDROJI ÛKIO APÞVALGA Iðankstiniais Statistikos departamento duomenimis, 2004 m. bendrasis vidaus produktas (BVP) galiojusiomis kainomis sudarë 61,9 mlrd. litø, vienam gyventojui 18 016 litø (2003 m. 56,2 mlrd. Lt ir 16 264 Lt). Palyginti su 2003 m., BVP palyginamosiomis kainomis padidëjo 6,7 procento. Iðankstiniu Statistikos departamento vertinimu, BVP (galiojusiomis kainomis) 2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá sudarë 14,9 mlrd. litø ir palyginamosiomis kainomis buvo 5,5 procento didesnis negu 2004 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá. Bendrojo vidaus produkto kaita¹ (palyginta su ankstesniu laikotarpiu; daugiau, maþiau ( ); procentais) Metai Ketvirèiai I II III IV I IV 2001 5,2 6,5 11,2 3,9 6,4 2002 8,1 9,8 11,3 5,2 6,8 2003² 5,1 7,8 12,7 3,3 9,7 2004² 8,9 8,1 11,1 2,4 6,7 2005³ 9,9 Bendrasis vidaus produktas 2004 m. BVP augimà lëmë pagrindiniø ekonominiø veiklø pridëtinës vertës augimas. Daugiausia realioji pridëtinë vertë padidëjo apdirbamojoje pramonëje (11,4%), didmeninëje ir maþmeninëje prekyboje (10,4%), transporto, sandëliavimo ir ryðiø veikloje (7,8%). 2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá visos pramonës produkcijos (be PVM ir akcizo) parduota 4,2 procento, kasybos, karjerø eksploatavimo bei apdirbamosios pramonës 7,0 procento daugiau negu 2004 m. tuo paèiu laikotarpiu. Finansø ministerijos duomenimis, valstybës biudþeto pajamos 2004 m. sudarë 11 794,0 mln. litø, iðlaidos 12 652,5 mln. litø, t. y. iðlaidos virðijo pajamas 858,5 mln. litø (2003 m. buvo 1 190,9 mln. Lt valstybës biudþeto deficitas). 6 ¹ BVP palyginamosiomis 2000 m. kainomis. ² Iðankstiniai duomenys. ³ Pirmasis ávertis.
2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá infliacija sudarë 0,6 procento. 2005 m. kovo mën., palyginti su 2004 m. kovo mën., buvo 3,2 procento infliacija. Ðalies ûkio darbuotojø mënesio apskaièiuotasis darbo uþmokestis 2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá sudarë 1 269,8 lito, iðmokëtasis 912,6 lito. Palyginti su 2004 m. pirmuoju ketvirèiu, apskaièiuotasis darbo uþmokestis padidëjo 10,8, iðmokëtasis 9,5 procento. Realusis darbo uþmokestis minëtà laikotarpá padidëjo 6,2 procento. Vidutinë nedirbanèio pensininko senatvës pensija 2004 m. buvo 371,55 lito. Palyginti su 2003 m., ji padidëjo 9,1 procento. Darbo birþos duomenimis, 2005 m. kovo pabaigoje buvo 124,4 tûkst. bedarbiø ( 2004 m. gruodþio pabaigoje 126,4 tûkst.). Registruotø bedarbiø ir darbingo amþiaus gyventojø santykis kovo pabaigoje sudarë 5,9 procento (2004 m. gruodþio pabaigoje 6,0%). Kovo pabaigoje moterys sudarë 56,6 procento bedarbiø. Per ketvirtá jø dalis sumaþëjo. Pirmàjá ketvirtá buvo ádarbinta 22,0 tûkst. bedarbiø, ið jø nuolatiniam darbui 18,3 tûkst. KAINOS Statistikos departamento duomenimis, 2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá, palyginti su 2004 m. tuo paèiu laikotarpiu, vartotojø kainos padidëjo 3,1 procento. Vartotojø kainø Baltijos valstybëse kaita (2000 m. gruodþio mën. = 100) Gamintojø parduotos pramonës produkcijos kainos 2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá, palyginti su 2004 m. pirmuoju ketvirèiu, padidëjo 9,1 procento. Minëtà laikotarpá statybos kainos padidëjo 8,7 procento. 2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá, palyginti su 2004 m. tuo paèiu laikotarpiu, þemës ûkio produktø supirkimo kainos padidëjo 7,2 procento (augalininkystës produktø supirkimo kainos sumaþëjo 5,5%, gyvuliø ir gyvulininkystës produktø padidëjo 25,6%). 7
Kainø kaita (palyginta su ankstesniu ketvirèiu; daugiau, maþiau ( ); procentais) Metai Ketvirèiai Kainos gamintojø parduotos pramonës produkcijos statybos þemës ûkio produktø supirkimo 2001 I 2,7 2,2... II 0,3 0,7 2,3 III 2,9 1,0 0,2 IV 3,3 1,7 14,8 2002 I 0,3 1,0 23,0 II 2,6 1,7 15,8 III 0,8 0,9 32,0 IV 0,5 0,1 8,9 2003 I 2,8 1,7 11,6 II 5,2 2,0 4,0 III 1,4 1,0 8,5 IV 1,0 0,0 4,3 2004 I 1,0 0,2 5,8 II 4,0 4,0 1,5 III 2,9 2,8 1,8 IV 1,3 1,4 6,0 2005 I 0,7 0,2 14,5 8 UÞSIENIO PREKYBA Statistikos departamento duomenimis, 2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá, palyginti su 2004 m. pirmuoju ketvirèiu, eksportas padidëjo 22,6 procento, importas 13,7 procento. Uþsienio prekybos balansas buvo neigiamas (1 522,5 mln. Lt). Daugiausia buvo eksportuota mineraliniø produktø. Jø dalis sudarë 25,7 procento viso eksporto. Palyginti su 2004 m. pirmuoju ketvirèiu, jø eksportas padidëjo 25,5 procento. Maðinos ir mechaniniai árenginiai, elektros árenginiai, televizijos vaizdo ir garso áraðymo bei atkûrimo aparatai sudarë 12,7 procento viso eksporto, jø uþsieniui parduota 22,7 procento daugiau. Tekstilës medþiagos ir tekstilës dirbiniai sudarë 10,8 procento; chemijos pramonës ir jai giminingø pramonës ðakø produkcija 8,4 procento viso eksporto. Minëtø prekiø grupiø eksportuota atitinkamai 4,9 procento maþiau ir 51,2 procento daugiau. Antþeminio, oro, vandens transporto priemonës ir pagalbiniai transporto árenginiai sudarë 7,4 procento viso eksporto, jø uþsieniui parduota 11,6 procento maþiau. Mediena ir medienos dirbiniai sudarë 5,0 procento viso eksporto, jø eksportuota 17,1 procento daugiau. 2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá daugiausia buvo importuota mineraliniø produktø. Jø dalis sudarë 22,7 procento viso importo. Palyginti su 2004 m. pirmuoju ketvirèiu, minëtø prekiø importas padidëjo 32,1 procento. Maðinos ir mechaniniai árenginiai, elektros árenginiai, televizijos vaizdo ir garso áraðymo bei atkûrimo aparatai sudarë 17,2 procento; antþeminio, oro, vandens transporto priemonës ir pagalbiniai transporto árenginiai 12,0 procento viso importo. Minëtø prekiø grupiø áveþta atitinkamai 6,6 ir 0,4 procento daugiau. Chemijos pramonës ir jai giminingø pramonës ðakø produkcija sudarë 9,0 procento viso importo, jos importas padidëjo 7,4 procento. Netaurieji metalai ir jø dirbiniai sudarë 7,1 procento; tekstilës medþiagos ir tekstilës dirbiniai 6,3 procento viso importo. Minëtø prekiø grupiø áveþta atitinkamai 37,4 procento daugiau ir 5,8 procento maþiau. Aktyviausiai buvo prekiaujama su ES valstybëmis. 2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá á ES iðveþta 70,9 procento visø ið Lietuvos eksportuotø prekiø, ið ES áveþta 58,9 procento visø á Lietuvà importuotø prekiø. Eksportas á NVS sudarë 15,4 procento viso eksporto, importas ið NVS 29,8 procento viso importo. Svarbiausi Lietuvos eksporto partneriai buvo Vokietija (10,0% viso eksporto), Rusija (9,7%), Prancûzija (8,8%), Latvija (8,5%), Estija (5,8%), Ðvedija (5,0%), Jungtinë Karalystë (4,9%), Lenkija (4,9%), JAV (4,8%), Danija (4,7%), importo Rusija (26,4% viso
EFEKTYVIØJØ LITO KURSØ INDEKSAI Efektyvieji lito kursø indeksai (1993 m. birþelio mën. = 100) importo), Vokietija (15,1%), Lenkija (8,1%), Nyderlandai (4,4%), Latvija (3,7%), Danija (3,5%), Ðvedija (3,1%). Nominaliøjø efektyviøjø lito kursø indeksas (NELKI) yra lito ir uþsienio valiutø santykiø pokyèiø, palyginti su baziniu laikotarpiu, geometrinis svertinis vidurkis, kurio svorius sudaro 12 pastarøjø mënesiø Lietuvos uþsienio prekybos apyvartos struktûra. Taèiau nominaliosios vertës pokyèiai neparodo realios lito vertës kitimo tendencijø prekybos partneriø valiutø atþvilgiu bei ðiø pokyèiø átakos Lietuvos konkurencingumui uþsienio rinkose. Atsiþvelgiant á Lietuvos ir atitinkamø valstybiø infliacijos bei nominaliøjø santykiø pokyèius, ávertinamas realios lito kainos pasikeitimas. Suvestinis realiøjø lito santykiø rodiklis yra realiøjø efektyviøjø lito kursø indeksas (RELKI). Nominalusis Realusis 2004 01 1 150,9 170,2 02 1 149,9 168,9 03 1 138,1 167,0 04 1 130,4 165,6 05 1 131,5 167,3 06 1 131,7 167,1 07 1 134,4 167,3 08 1 132,9 166,2 09 1 133,5 166,9 10 1 140,2 167,0 11 1 149,3 168,4 12 1 153,6 168,0 2005 01 1 149,1 166,8 02 1 142,4 165,0 03 1 144,9 165,0 Efektyvieji lito kursø indeksai (2000 m. gruodþio mën. = 100) 2005 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá nominali lito kaina pagrindiniø prekybos partneriø valiutø atþvilgiu sumaþëjo 0,8 procento, reali 1,8 procento. 9
MOKËJIMØ BALANSAS Einamosios sàskaitos deficitas Iðankstiniais duomenimis, 2004 m. mokëjimø balanso einamosios sàskaitos deficitas buvo 4,44 mlrd. litø, arba 7,2 procento bendrojo vidaus produkto. Palyginti su 2003 m., einamosios sàskaitos deficitas padidëjo 587,5 mln. litø, arba 15,2 procento. Mln. Lt Palyginti su BVP, % 2003 m. 3 854,0 6,9 I ketv. 476,2 3,8 II ketv. 1 158,1 8,3 III ketv. 734,8 5,0 IV ketv. 1 485,0 9,8 2004 m. 4 441,5 7,2 I ketv. 982,0 7,5 II ketv. 1 518,5 9,8 III ketv. 1 107,0 6,7 IV ketv. 834,0 4,9 10 Prekiø eksportas (skaièiuojant f.o.b. kainomis) 2004 m. sudarë 25,7 mlrd. litø, importas (skaièiuojant f.o.b. kainomis) 32,2 mlrd. litø. Palyginti su 2003 m., prekiø eksportas ir importas padidëjo. Bendras paslaugø balansas 2004 m. buvo teigiamas (2 557,7 mln. Lt). Palyginti su 2003 m., teigiamas paslaugø balansas padidëjo 669,8 mln. litø, arba 35,5 procento. Nerezidentams suteikta 6,9 mlrd. litø vertës ávairiø paslaugø, o ðalies ûkio subjektams nerezidentai suteikë 4,3 mlrd. litø vertës paslaugø. Palyginti su 2003 m., paslaugø eksportas padidëjo 20,4 procento, paslaugø importas 13,0 procento. Bendrus paslaugø eksporto ir importo pokyèius lëmë transporto ir kelioniø paslaugø raida. Minëtos paslaugos sudarë 87,4 procento bendro paslaugø eksporto ir 81,6 procento bendro paslaugø importo. Sparèiausiai didëjo geleþinkeliø transporto paslaugø eksportas. Jo prieaugis sudarë 43,2 procento transporto paslaugø eksporto ir 33,6 procento viso paslaugø eksporto prieaugio. Pajamø balansas 2004 m. buvo neigiamas (1 478,1 mln. Lt). Palyginti su 2003 m., jis sumaþëjo 12,7 mln. litø, arba 0,8 procento. Pajamø balanso deficità didino nerezidentø reinvesticijos, kurios padidëjo 67,6 procento. Pajamø balanso deficità maþino sparèiai didëjæs darbo pajamø pervirðis. 2004 m., palyginti su 2003 m., uþsienyje uþdirbtos ir á Lietuvà pervestos ir atveþtos darbo pajamos padidëjo 2,7 karto. Einamøjø pervedimø balansas 2004 m. buvo teigiamas ir sudarë 930,9 mln. litø (2003 m. 889,6 mln. Lt). Palyginti su 2003 m., einamieji pervedimai á Lietuvà padidëjo 445 mln. litø, ið jø 370,9 mln. litø dël padidëjusiø ið ES gautø pagalbos projektø lëðø. Lietuvos ámokos á ES biudþetà sudarë 411,9 mln. litø. Dël to bendras teigiamas einamøjø pervedimø balansas padidëjo tik 4,6 procento. Kapitalo ir finansinës sàskaitø balansas 2004 m. sudarë 3,94 mlrd. litø. Palyginti su 2003 m., kapitalo ir finansinës sàskaitø balansas padidëjo 581,7 mln. litø, arba 17,3 procento. 2004 m. bendras Lietuvos investicijø srautas uþsienyje sudarë 3,12 mlrd. litø, o bendras uþsienio investicijø srautas Lietuvoje 5,93 mlrd. litø. Palyginti su 2003 m., ðalies ûkio subjektø tiesioginiø investicijø uþsienyje srautas padidëjo 6,3 karto, uþsienio investicijø srautas Lietuvoje 17,6 procento. 2004 m. tiesioginiø uþsienio investicijø srautas Lietuvoje sudarë 2,15 mlrd. litø (2003 m. 552,2 mln. Lt). 2004 m. gruodþio 31 d. sukauptø tiesioginiø uþsienio investicijø Lietuvoje buvo 16,19 mlrd. litø.
Investicijø portfelio srautas Lietuvoje 2004 m. sudarë 1,2 mlrd. litø. Investicijø portfelio srauto 93,4 procento sudarë áplaukos, gautos uþ 2004 m. pirmàjá ketvirtá Vyriausybës uþsienyje iðplatintà naujà euroobligacijø emisijà. Kitos investicijos. 2004 m. kitø investicijø srautas Lietuvoje sudarë 2,74 mlrd. litø. Palyginti su 2003 m., ðiø investicijø srautas buvo maþesnis 1,18 mlrd. litø, arba 30 procentø. Didþiausià ðiø investicijø srauto dalá sudarë komerciniø bankø gautos paskolos ir nerezidentø indëliai ðalies komerciniuose bankuose. Oficialiøjø tarptautiniø atsargø srautas 2004 m. buvo neigiamas (342,6 mln. Lt). Metø pabaigoje oficialiosios tarptautinës atsargos sudarë 9,11 mlrd. litø. Mokëjimø balansas Lietuvos Respublikos tarptautiniø investicijø balansas buvo neigiamas (21,6 mlrd. Lt). 2004 m. gruodþio 31 d. visas ðalies finansinis uþsienio turtas sudarë 18,8 mlrd. litø, visi ðalies tarptautiniai finansiniai ásipareigojimai 40,4 mlrd. litø. Tiesioginës uþsienio investicijos sudarë 40,1, investicijø portfelis 17,6, kitos investicijos 42,3 procento visø ðalies tarptautiniø finansiniø ásipareigojimø. 11
LIETUVOS FINANSØ RINKOS APÞVALGA BENDRIEJI BANKØ RODIKLIAI LIETUVOS BANKO BALANSO APÞVALGA KONSOLIDUOTO KREDITO ÁSTAIGØ BALANSO APÞVALGA 2005 m. kovo pabaigoje buvo 10 komerciniø bankø. Lietuvoje taip pat veikë Bayerische Hypo-und Vereinsbank AG Vilniaus skyrius, Nordea Bank Finland Plc Lietuvos skyrius ir 4 uþsienio bankø atstovybës. Ketvirèio pabaigoje buvo 62 kredito unijos, turinèios veiklos licencijà. Kovo pabaigoje Lietuvos banko turto vertë buvo 9 783,0 mln. litø. Per ketvirtá banko turtas padidëjo 464,2 mln. litø, arba 5,0 procento. Uþsienio turtas sudarë 97,6 procento viso Lietuvos banko turto. Per ketvirtá uþsienio turtas padidëjo 519,5 mln. litø, arba 5,8 procento. Pretenzijos sudarë 0,3 procento Lietuvos banko turto. Per ketvirtá jos padidëjo. Kitas turtas sudarë 2,1 procento viso Lietuvos banko turto. Per ketvirtá jis sumaþëjo 55,5 mln. litø, arba 20,9 procento. Didþiàjà visø Lietuvos banko ásipareigojimø dalá (90,6%) sudarë vidaus ásipareigojimai. Per ketvirtá vidaus ásipareigojimai padidëjo 393,7 mln. litø, arba 4,6 procento. Ásipareigojimai uþsieniui sudarë 0,1 procento visø Lietuvos banko ásipareigojimø. Per ketvirtá ásipareigojimai uþsieniui padidëjo. Kiti ásipareigojimai sudarë 9,2 procento visø Lietuvos banko ásipareigojimø. Per ketvirtá jie padidëjo 69,1 mln. litø, arba 8,3 procento. Kredito ástaigø turtas per ketvirtá padidëjo. Didþiàjà jo dalá (88,0%) sudarë atsargos, uþsienio turtas, pretenzijos privaèiam sektoriui bei centrinei Vyriausybei. Atsargos kovo pabaigoje sudarë 5,9 procento viso kredito ástaigø turto. Per ketvirtá kredito ástaigø atsargos sumaþëjo 54,5 mln. litø, arba 2,9 procento. Didþiàjà atsargø dalá (75,3%) sudarë indëliai Lietuvos banke. Per ketvirtá minëti indëliai sumaþëjo 34,0 mln. litø, arba 2,4 procento. Uþsienio turtas per ketvirtá padidëjo 828,4 mln. litø, arba 17,7 procento. Ketvirèio pabaigoje uþsienio turtas sudarë 18,1 procento viso kredito ástaigø turto. Pretenzijos sudarë 72,4 procento viso kredito ástaigø turto. Per ketvirtá pretenzijos padidëjo 894,1 mln. litø, arba 4,2 procento. Didþiàjà pretenzijø dalá (88,3%) sudarë paskolos. Trumpalaikës paskolos sudarë 16,1, ilgalaikës paskolos 83,9 procento visø kredito ástaigø paskolø. Per ketvirtá trumpalaikiø paskolø suma sumaþëjo 244,5 mln. litø (7,2%), ilgalaikiø paskolø padidëjo 1 174,2 mln. litø (7,7%). Paskolos litais sudarë 41,8, uþsienio valiutomis 58,2 procento visø kredito ástaigø paskolø. Per ketvirtá paskolø litais suma padidëjo 256,9 mln. litø (3,3%), paskolø uþsienio valiutomis 672,8 mln. litø (6,3%). 12
Paskolø struktûra 2005 m. (laikotarpio pabaigoje; palyginta su visomis paskolomis; procentais) Visos paskolos Mënesiai 01 02 03 Centrinei Vyriausybei 2,1 0,0 0,0 Savivaldos institucijoms 2,1 2,0 2,0 Privalomiesiems socialinio ir sveikatos draudimo fondams 0,7 0,7 0,7 Valstybës ne finansø ámonëms 0,5 0,5 0,6 Privaèioms verslo ámonëms 60,1 61,0 60,2 Fiziniams asmenims 25,4 26,4 27,1 Ne pelno organizacijoms 0,2 0,2 0,2 Nebankinëms finansø institucijoms 8,9 9,2 9,2 Trumpalaikës paskolos Centrinei Vyriausybei 11,5 0,0 0,0 Savivaldos institucijoms 0,7 0,8 0,8 Privalomiesiems socialinio ir sveikatos draudimo fondams Valstybës ne finansø ámonëms 0,6 0,8 1,2 Privaèioms verslo ámonëms 66,9 75,5 73,9 Fiziniams asmenims 4,2 4,5 4,3 Ne pelno organizacijoms 0,2 0,2 0,2 Nebankinëms finansø institucijoms 15,9 18,2 19,6 Ilgalaikës paskolos Centrinei Vyriausybei 0,0 0,0 0,0 Savivaldos institucijoms 2,4 2,3 2,2 Privalomiesiems socialinio ir sveikatos draudimo fondams 0,9 0,8 0,8 Valstybës ne finansø ámonëms 0,5 0,5 0,5 Privaèioms verslo ámonëms 58,6 58,2 57,6 Fiziniams asmenims 29,9 30,5 31,5 Ne pelno organizacijoms 0,2 0,2 0,2 Nebankinëms finansø institucijoms 7,5 7,5 7,2 Turto struktûra Kitas turtas kovo pabaigoje sudarë 3,6 procento viso kredito ástaigø turto. Per ketvirtá jis padidëjo. 13
Didþiàjà kredito ástaigø ásipareigojimø dalá (60,5%) sudarë indëliai. Indëliai iki pareikalavimo sudarë 24,7 procento visø kredito ástaigø ásipareigojimø. Per ketvirtá indëliø iki pareikalavimo suma padidëjo 210,4 mln. litø, arba 2,9 procento. Daugiausia padidëjo nebankiniø finansø institucijø, savivaldos institucijø, ne pelno organizacijø ir valstybës ne finansø ámoniø indëliai iki pareikalavimo. Indëliø iki pareikalavimo struktûra 2005 m. (laikotarpio pabaigoje; palyginta su visais indëliais; procentais) Mënesiai 01 02 03 Savivaldos institucijø 5,9 5,4 4,8 Valstybës ne finansø ámoniø 3,2 3,3 3,1 Privaèiø verslo ámoniø 36,3 35,3 35,5 Fiziniø asmenø 50,2 51,4 51,9 Ne pelno organizacijø 2,9 3,1 2,9 Nebankiniø finansø institucijø 1,5 1,5 1,8 Terminuotieji ir taupomieji indëliai kovo pabaigoje sudarë 17,7 procento, indëliai uþsienio valiutomis 16,4 procento visø kredito ástaigø ásipareigojimø. Per ketvirtá terminuotøjø ir taupomøjø indëliø suma padidëjo 423,8 mln. litø, arba 8,5 procento. Daugiausia padidëjo savivaldos institucijø, ne pelno organizacijø, nebankiniø finansø institucijø ir privaèiø verslo ámoniø terminuotieji ir taupomieji indëliai. Indëliø uþsienio valiutomis suma per ketvirtá padidëjo 695,9 mln. litø, arba 16,1 procento. Daugiausia padidëjo privaèiø verslo ámoniø, valstybës ne finansø ámoniø, fiziniø asmenø ir nebankiniø finansø institucijø indëliai uþsienio valiutomis. Terminuotøjø ir taupomøjø indëliø ir indëliø uþsienio valiutomis struktûra 2005 m. (laikotarpio pabaigoje; palyginta su visais indëliais; procentais) Terminuotieji ir taupomieji indëliai Mënesiai 01 02 03 Savivaldos institucijø 0,1 0,2 0,2 Valstybës ne finansø ámoniø 2,6 2,4 2,5 Privaèiø verslo ámoniø 18,0 17,3 18,2 Fiziniø asmenø 75,6 76,5 75,5 Ne pelno organizacijø 0,9 1,1 1,0 Nebankiniø finansø institucijø 2,8 2,5 2,6 Indëliai uþsienio valiutomis Savivaldos institucijø 0,1 0,1 0,1 Valstybës ne finansø ámoniø 2,9 2,5 3,1 Privaèiø verslo ámoniø 42,8 44,5 47,7 Fiziniø asmenø 52,2 50,8 47,4 Ne pelno organizacijø 1,3 1,2 1,1 Nebankiniø finansø institucijø 0,7 0,9 0,6 Ásipareigojimai uþsieniui ketvirèio pabaigoje sudarë 23,2 procento visø kredito ástaigø ásipareigojimø. Per ketvirtá ásipareigojimai uþsieniui padidëjo 162,8 mln. litø, arba 2,4 procento. Kiti ásipareigojimai sudarë 16,4 procento visø kredito ástaigø ásipareigojimø. Per ketvirtá jie padidëjo 250,8 mln. litø, arba 5,3 procento. 14
Ásipareigojimø struktûra PINIGØ APÞVALGA Pinigø bazë kovo pabaigoje buvo 6 939,9 mln. litø. Per ketvirtá pinigø bazë sumaþëjo 39,0 mln. litø, arba 0,6 procento. Lietuvos banko iðleistø á apyvartà grynøjø pinigø kiekis sumaþëjo 11,0 mln. litø (0,2%), komerciniø bankø atsargos litais 86,1 mln. litø (9,7%), privalomosios atsargos uþsienio valiutomis padidëjo 58,0 mln. litø (11,5%). Pinigø kiekis P2 ketvirèio pabaigoje sudarë 23,1 mlrd. litø. Per ketvirtá pinigø kiekis padidëjo 1 342,2 mln. litø, arba 6,2 procento. Pinigai P1 padidëjo 222,6 mln. litø, arba 1,8 procento. Pinigø kiekis apyvartoje padidëjo 9,6 mln. litø (0,2%), rezidentø indëliai iki pareikalavimo 213,0 mln. litø (2,9%). Kvazipinigai padidëjo 1 119,6 mln. litø, arba 12,0 procento. Rezidentø terminuotieji ir taupomieji indëliai padidëjo 423,8 mln. litø (8,5%), rezidentø indëliai uþsienio valiutomis 695,8 mln. litø (16,1%). Pinigø kiekio kaita (praëjusiø metø atitinkamas laikotarpis = 100) MOKËJIMØ PRIEMONËS Pirmàjá ketvirtá atlikta 24,7 mln. mokëjimø negrynaisiais pinigais operacijø. Operacijø vertë sudarë 228,5 mlrd. litø, ið jø Lietuvoje 110,5 mlrd. litø (48,3% visø operacijø vertës) ir tarptautiniø 118,0 mlrd. litø (51,7%). Palyginti su 2004 m. ketvirtuoju ket- 15
Mokëjimai negrynaisiais pinigais virèiu, mokëjimø negrynaisiais pinigais operacijø vertë padidëjo 14,5 procento, Lietuvoje sumaþëjo 5,5 procento, tarptautiniø padidëjo 42,6 procento. Kredito pervedimai sudarë 99,1, debeto pervedimai 0,5, banko (debeto, kredito) kortelës 0,4 procento mokëjimø negrynaisiais pinigais operacijø vertës. Ketvirèio pabaigoje bankai buvo iðdavæ 2 618,0 tûkst. banko (debeto, kredito) ir 160,4 tûkst. ið anksto apmokëtø banko korteliø. Palyginti su 2004 m. ketvirtuoju ketvirèiu, banko (debeto, kredito) korteliø padaugëjo 3,1, ið anksto apmokëtø banko korteliø 0,7 procento. Lietuvoje ketvirtojo ketvirèio pabaigoje veikë 1 018 bankomatø ir 15 495 korteliø skaitytuvai. Operacijø, naudojant ðiuos árenginius, vertë atitinkamai sudarë 2 827,2 ir 641,3 mln. litø. Palyginti su 2004 m. ketvirtuoju ketvirèiu, minëtø operacijø vertë atitinkamai sumaþëjo 6,8 ir 4,2 procento. VERTYBINIØ POPIERIØ RINKA Paklausa ir parduota VVP aukcionuose (2005 m. I ketv.) Pirmàjá ketvirtá Lietuvos banke surengti 8 Vyriausybës vertybiniø popieriø aukcionai. Aukcionuose parduota 150,0 mln. litø nominaliosios vertës iþdo vekseliø ir 200,0 mln. litø nominaliosios vertës obligacijø. 16 Vidutinis aukcionuose parduotø iþdo vekseliø pelningumas pirmàjá ketvirtá buvo 2,10 procento (2004 m. ketvirtàjá ketvirtá 2,16%). Vidutinis obligacijø pelningumas buvo 3,11 procento (2004 m. ketvirtàjá ketvirtá 3,43%).
Pirmàjá ketvirtá Vyriausybë iðpirko 229,5 mln. litø vertës iþdo vekseliø. Ásiskolinimas investuotojams per ketvirtá padidëjo 80,5 mln. litø, arba 2,7 procento. Kovo pabaigoje ásiskolinimas investuotojams sudarë 3 076,2 mln. litø. Investuotojai á Vyriausybës vertybinius popierius (2005 m. kovo pabaigoje) VVP Investuotojø grupës mln. Lt¹ % REZIDENTAI Finansø maklerio ámonës 2,5 0,1 Bankai 1 582,7 44,8 Draudimo ástaigos (iðskyrus privalomàjá socialiná draudimà) 630,3 17,8 Investicinës bendrovës (fondai) 31,4 0,9 Kiti finansiniai tarpininkai 80,7 2,3 Valstybës ir savivaldybiø ámonës 385,1 10,9 Privaèios ámonës 48,2 1,4 Valstybës valdymo institucijos 234,7 6,6 Gyventojai 376,4 10,7 Kiti 16,5 0,5 Ið viso rezidentai 3 388,6 95,9 NEREZIDENTAI 145,2 4,1 IŠ VISO REZIDENTAI IR NEREZIDENTAI 3 533,8 100,0 Pagrindiniai VVP pirkëjai buvo Lietuvos bankai. Kovo pabaigoje jie buvo ásigijæ 44,8 procento esanèiø apyvartoje Vyriausybës vertybiniø popieriø nominaliàja verte. VALIUTØ RINKOS APYVARTA Pirmàjá ketvirtá valiutø rinkos apyvarta (uþsienio valiutø pirkimas ir pardavimas uþ litus) sudarë 24 669,7 mln. litø. Palyginti su 2004 m. ketvirtuoju ketvirèiu, valiutø rinkos apyvarta sumaþëjo 23,2 procento. Grynaisiais pinigais uþsienio valiutos pirkta ir parduota 12,1, negrynaisiais pinigais 23,7 procento maþiau. Valiutø rinkos apyvarta (mln. litø) 2003 2004 2005 Ið viso Grynieji pinigai Negrynieji pinigai ið viso neatidëliotini sandoriai iðvestiniai sandoriai I ketv. 54 181,9 1 954,1 52 227,8 47 006,0 5 221,8 II ketv. 58 322,3 1 828,5 56 493,8 49 697,2 6 796,8 III ketv. 40 134,4 1 652,3 38 482,2 25 862,1 12 620,0 IV ketv. 36 620,1 1 709,8 34 910,3 19 391,1 15 519,1 I IV ketv. 189 258,8 7 144,7 182 114,1 141 956,5 40 157,6 I ketv. 34 910,9 1 369,3 33 541,5 20 257,0 13 284,6 II ketv. 35 446,3 1 407,0 34 039,4 19 540,6 14 498,8 III ketv. 36 008,5 1 552,2 34 456,3 19 722,0 14 734,3 IV ketv. 32 113,0 1 524,1 30 588,9 16 810,8 13 778,1 I IV ketv. 138 478,6 5 852,5 132 626,1 76 330,4 56 295,7 I ketv. 24 669,7 1 339,6 23 330,1 10 947,5 12 382,6 ¹ Nominaliàja verte. 17
Uþsienio valiutø pirkimas ir pardavimas grynaisiais pinigais sudarë 5,4 procento valiutø rinkos apyvartos. Neatidëliotini sandoriai sudarë 44,4, iðankstiniai sandoriai 3,0, apsikeitimo sandoriai 47,1 procento valiutø rinkos apyvartos. Valiutø rinkos apyvarta CENTRINËS VALDÞIOS SKOLA Centrinës valdþios skola pagal kreditorius (mln. litø) 2005 m. kovo pabaigoje centrinës valdþios skola sudarë 12 141,0 mln. litø. Per ketvirtá ji padidëjo 558,0 mln. litø, arba 4,8 procento. 2004 12 31 2005 03 31 Visa centrinës valdþios skola 11 583,0 12 141,0 Vidaus skola 4 104,4 3 743,3 Nefinansø sektoriui 412,9 431,7 Finansø sektoriui 3 285,5 2 917,1 Kitiems kreditoriams 406,0 394,5 Skola uþsieniui 7 478,6 8 397,7 Tarptautinëms plëtros organizacijoms 1 040,8 922,2 Uþsienio ðaliø valdymo institucijoms (dviðalës sutartys) 194,2 200,8 Kitiems kreditoriams 6 243,6 7 274,6 Vidaus skola 2005 m. kovo pabaigoje buvo 3 743,3 mln. litø. Ilgalaikiai ásipareigojimai sudarë 97,9 procento vidaus skolos. Per ketvirtá vidaus skola sumaþëjo 361,1 mln. litø, arba 8,8 procento. Skola uþsieniui sudarë 8 397,7 mln. litø. Ilgalaikiai ásipareigojimai sudarë 98,3 procento skolos uþsieniui. Per ketvirtá skola uþsieniui padidëjo 919,1 mln. litø, arba 12,3 procento. 18
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMY OF LITHUANIA GENERAL REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY Development of the Gross Domestic Product¹ (Percentage change; previous period = 100) According to preliminary data of the Statistics Lithuania, the gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices totalled LTL 61.9 billion, and that per capita amounted to LTL 18,016 in 2004 (in 2003, the GDP amounted to LTL 56.2 billion and GDP per capita was LTL 16,264). The GDP at constant prices grew by 6.7 per cent compared with 2003. According to the provisional estimate of the Statistics Lithuania, the GDP at current prices amounted to LTL 14.9 billion in the 1 st quarter of 2005. The GDP at constant prices increased by 5.5 per cent compared with the 1 st quarter of 2004. Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 2001 5.2 6.5 11.2 3.9 6.4 2002 8.1 9.8 11.3 5.2 6.8 2003² 5.1 7.8 12.7 3.3 9.7 2004² 8.9 8.1 11.1 2.4 6.7 2005³ 9.9 Gross Domestic Product The GDP growth in 2004 was determined by the growth in value added of basic economic activities. The largest growth value added in manufacturing (11.4%), wholesale and retail trade (10.4%), transport, storage and communication (7.8%). In the 1 st quarter of 2005, if compared with 1 st quarter of 2004, total industry production (VAT and excises excluded) sold grew by 4.2 per cent, mining, quarrying and manufacturing industry increased by 7.0 per cent. According to the data of the Ministry of Finance, revenue of the State budget amounted to LTL 11,794.0 million and expenditure stood at LTL 12,652.5 million in 2004, i. e., expenditure exceeded revenue by LTL 858.5 million (in 2003, budget deficit stood at LTL 1,190.9 million). In the 1 st quarter of 2005, inflation accounted for 0.6 per cent. Annual inflation (March 2005 compared with March 2004) made up 3.2 per cent. ¹ At constant prices of 2000. ² Preliminary data. ³ First estimate. 19
In the 1 st quarter of 2005, gross average monthly earnings of employees in the whole economy amounted to LTL 1,269.8 and net monthly earnings equalled to LTL 912.6. Gross average monthly earnings grew by 10.8 per cent and net monthly earnings increased by 9.5 per cent compared with the 1 st quarter of 2004. Real earnings went up by 6.2 per cent. The average old-age pension of non-working pensioners amounted to LTL 371.55 in 2004 and augmented by 9.1 per cent compared with 2003. According to the data of the Labour Exchange, the number of registered unemployed reached 124.4 thousand at the end of March (126.4 thousand at the end of December 2004). Ratio of the registered unemployed persons to the working age population accounted for 5.9 per cent at the end of March (6.0% at the end of December 2004). Females made up 56.6 per cent of unemployed at the end of March. Their share decreased during the quarter. In the 1 st quarter of 2005, 22.0 thousand of unemployed received jobs, of which 18.3 thousand of people were employed permanently. PRICES According to the data of the Statistics Lithuania, consumer prices went up by 3.1 per cent in the 1 st quarter of 2005, if compared with the 1 st quarter of 2004. Development of Consumer Prices in the Baltic States (December 2000 = 100) Development of Prices (Percentage change; previous quarter = 100) Producer prices for industrial production grew by 9.1 per cent in the 1 st quarter of 2005, if compared with the same period of 2004. In the 1 st quarter of 2005, if compared with the 1 st quarter of 2004, construction input prices increased by 8.7 per cent. Producer prices for agricultural products went up by 7.2 per cent in the 1 st quarter of 2005, if compared with the same period of 2004 (prices for crop products declined by 5.5%, prices for animals and animal products augmented by 25.6%). 20 Year Quarters Producer prices for industrial production Construction prices Producer prices for agricultural products 2001 Q1 2.7 2.2 Q2 0.3 0.7 2.3 Q3 2.9 1.0 0.2 Q4 3.3 1.7 14.8 2002 Q1 0.3 1.0 23.0 Q2 2.6 1,7 15.8 Q3 0.8 0.9 32.0 Q4 0.5 0.1 8.9
Development of Prices continued Year Quarters Producer prices for industrial production Construction prices Producer prices for agricultural products 2003 Q1 2.8 1.7 11.6 Q2 5.2 2.0 4.0 Q3 1.4 1.0 8.5 Q4 1.0 0.0 4.3 2004 Q1 1.0 0.2 5.8 Q2 4.0 4.0 1.5 Q3 2.9 2.8 1.8 Q4 1.3 1.4 6.0 2005 Q1 0.7 0.2 14.5 FOREIGN TRADE According to the Statistics Lithuania data, exports and imports increased by 22.6 and 13.7 per cent in the 1 st quarter of 2005, if compared with the same period of 2004. Foreign trade balance was negative (LTL 1,522.5 million). The bulk (25.7%) of exports in the 1 st quarter of 2005 were comprised of mineral products. Their exports grew by 25.5 per cent compared with the 1 st quarter of 2004. Machinery and mechanical appliances, electric equipment, television image and sound recorders and reproducers made up 12.7 per cent of the total exports. Exports in this commodity group increased by 22.7 per cent. Textiles and textile articles accounted for 10.8 per cent; products of the chemical or allied industries equalled to 8.4 per cent of the total exports. The sales abroad of goods of the aforementioned commodity groups decreased by 4.9 per cent and increased by 51.2 per cent. Vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport equipment totalled 7.4 per cent of the total exports. Exports in this commodity group declined by 11.6 per cent. Wood and articles of wood made up 5.0 per cent of the total exports. These exports augmented by 17.1 per cent. Mineral products comprised the largest share (22.7%) of the total imports. Their imports increased by 32.1 per cent compared with the 1 st quarter of 2004. Machinery and mechanical appliances, electric equipment, television image and sound recorders and reproducers accounted for 17.2 per cent; vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport equipment made up 12.0 per cent of the total imports. The purchase abroad of goods of the aforementioned commodity groups increased by 6.6 and 0.4 per cent, respectively. Products of the chemical or allied industries accounted for 9.0 per cent. Their imports grew by 7.4 per cent. Base metals and articles of base metal made up 7.1 per cent; textiles and textile articles equalled to 6.3 per cent of the total imports. The imports of goods of the aforementioned commodity groups increased by 37.4 per cent and decreased by 5.8 per cent. The most active trade was carried out with the EU countries. In the 1 st quarter of 2005, dispatches to the EU countries accounted for 70.9 per cent, while arrivals from these countries made up 58.9 per cent. Exports to the CIS countries equalled to 15.4 per cent of the total exports, imports from these countries totalled 29.8 per cent of the total imports. In the 1 st quarter of 2005, main exports partners were Germany (10.0% of the total exports), Russia (9.7%), France (8.8%), Latvia (8.5%), Estonia (5.8%), Sweden (5.0%), United Kingdom (4.9%), Poland (4.9%), USA (4.8%), Denmark (4.7%), main imports partners Russia (26.4% of the total imports), Germany (15.1%), Poland (8.1%), Netherlands (4.4%), Latvia (3.7%), Denmark (3.5%), Sweden (3.1%). EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE INDICES OF THE LITAS The nominal effective exchange rate index of the litas (NEERI) is the geometric weighted average of the development of exchange rates of the litas and foreign currencies com- 21
Effective Exchange Rate Indices of the litas (June 1993 = 100) pared with the base period. Its weights comprise the structure of the foreign trade turnover of Lithuania during the past 12 months. However, changes in the nominal value do not reflect development trends of the real value of the litas against the trade partners currencies and the influence of these changes on Lithuania s competitiveness in foreign markets. Change in the real price of the litas is measured in observance of the development of inflation rates and nominal exchange rates in Lithuania and respective countries. The aggregate indicator of bilateral real exchange rates of the litas is its real effective exchange rate index (REERI). Nominal 01 2004 1,150.9 170.2 02 1,149.9 168.9 03 1,138.1 167.0 04 1,130.4 165.6 05 1,131.5 167.3 06 1,131.7 167.1 07 1,134.4 167.3 08 1,132.9 166.2 09 1,133.5 166.9 10 1,140.2 167.0 11 1,149.3 168.4 12 1,153.6 168.0 01 2005 1,149.1 166.8 02 1,142.4 165.0 03 1,144.9 165.0 Real Effective Exchange Rate Indices of the litas (December 2000 = 100) The nominal prices of the litas against the currencies of the main foreign trade partners decreased by 0.8 per cent, the real value of the litas declined by 1.8 per cent during the 1 st quarter of 2005. 22 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS According to preliminary data, in 2004 the current account deficit stood at LTL 4.44 billion, or 7.2 per cent of the GDP. In comparison with 2003, current account deficit grew by LTL 587.5 million, or 15.2 per cent.
Current Account Deficit Ratio to GDP, % 2003 3,854.0 6.9 Q1 476.2 3.8 Q2 1,158.1 8.3 Q3 734.8 5.0 Q4 1,485.0 9.8 2004 4,441.5 7.2 Q1 982.0 7.5 Q2 1,518.5 9.8 Q3 1,107.0 6.7 Q4 834.0 4.9 Exports of goods (f.o.b.) amounted to LTL 25.7 billion and their imports (f.o.b.) equalled to LTL 32.2 billion in 2004. The exports and imports of goods increased, if compared with 2003. The overall balance of services in 2004 was positive (it equalled to LTL 2,557.7 million). The overall balance of services grew by LTL 669.8 million, or 35.5 per cent, if compared with 2003. Non-residents were rendered all kinds of services worth LTL 6.9 billion, while value of services provided by non-residents to the country s economic entities amounted to LTL 4.3 billion in 2004. In comparison with 2003, the exports of services grew by 20.4 per cent and imports of services increased by 13.0 per cent. The overall changes in the export and import of services were determined by the development of transport and travel services. These two kinds of services made up 87.4 per cent of the total export of services and 81.6 per cent of the total import of services. Railway transport services exhibited the strongest growth among all kinds of transport to account for 43.2 per cent of the increase in the export of transport services and 33.6 per cent in the increase of the total export of services. The income balance in 2004 was negative (it amounted to LTL 1,478.1 million). The income balance decreased by LTL 12.7 million, or 0.8 per cent, if compared with 2003. The income balance deficit was worsened by increased non-resident reinvested earnings which grew by 67.6 per cent. The income balance deficit was offset by the fast growth in the excess of compensation of employees. Year on year the transfer of compensation of employees to Lithuania increased 2.7 times. Balance of current transfers in 2004 was positive and equalled to LTL 930.9 million (in 2003, it amounted to LTL 889.6 million). Compared with 2003, current transfers to Lithuania increased by LTL 445.0 million, of which LTL 370.9 million was an increase of support funds from the EU. Lithuania s contribution to the EU budget made up LTL 411.9 million in 2004. As a result, positive balance of current transfers increased by as little as 4.6 per cent. Capital and financial accounts balance in 2004 amounted to LTL 3,94 billion. Compared with 2003, capital and financial accounts balance grew by LTL 581.7 million, or 17.3 per cent. In 2004, the total investment flow abroad made up LTL 3.12 billion and foreign investment flow in Lithuania stood at LTL 5.93 billion. Compared with 2003, foreign direct investment flow by domestic economic entities increased 6.3 times, foreign investment flow in Lithuania augmented by 17.6 per cent. Foreign direct investment flow in Lithuania made up LTL 2.15 billion in 2004 (LTL 552.2 million in 2003). On 31 December 2004, accumulated foreign direct investment in Lithuania stood at LTL 16.19 billion. Portfolio investment flow in Lithuania equalled to LTL 1.2 billion in 2004. Inflows from the new Government Eurobond issue in the 1 st quarter of 2004 accounted for 93.4 per cent of the portfolio investment flow. Other investment. In 2004, other investment flow in Lithuania was LTL 2.74 billion. In comparison with 2003, this investment flow was lower by LTL 1.18 billion, or 30 per 23
cent. Loans received by commercial banks and non-resident deposits in domestic commercial banks accounted for the largest share of this flow. Reserve assets. Reserve assets flow in 2004 was negative (it totalled LTL 342.6 million). At the end of 2004, the reserve assets amounted to LTL 9.11 billion. Balance of Payments Balance of international investment position of the Republic of Lithuania was negative (LTL 21.6 billion). On 31 December 2004, total foreign financial assets stood at LTL 18.8 billion, and total international financial liabilities amounted to LTL 40.4 billion. Foreign direct investment accounted for 40.1 per cent, portfolio investment equalled to 17.6 per cent, other investment made up 42.3 per cent of the country s international financial liabilities. 24
REVIEW OF THE LITHUANIAN FINANCIAL MARKET GENERAL INDICES OF BANKS REVIEW OF THE BANK OF LITHUANIA BALANCE SHEET At the end of March 2005, 10 commercial banks were in operation. The Vilnius Branch of Bayerische Hypo-und Vereinsbank AG, Nordea Bank Finland Plc Lithuania Branch and 4 representative offices of foreign banks carried out banking operations in Lithuania. At the end of the quarter, 62 credit unions possessed licences for their activities. At the end of March, the assets of the Bank of Lithuania (LB) amounted to LTL 9,783.0 million. It increased by LTL 464.2 million, or 5.0 per cent during the quarter. Foreign assets made up 97.6 per cent of the total assets of the LB. It went up by LTL 519.5 million, or 5.8 per cent over the quarter. Claims accounted for 0.3 per cent of the total assets of the LB. It augmented during the quarter. Other assets equalled to 2.1 per cent of the total assets of the LB. It decreased by LTL 55.5 million, or 20.9 per cent over the quarter. Domestic liabilities made up the largest part (90.6%) of the total liabilities of the LB. During the quarter, it grew by LTL 393.7 million, or 4.6 per cent. Foreign liabilities accounted for 0.1 per cent of the total liabilities of the LB. It increased over the quarter. Other liabilities equalled to 9.2 per cent of the total liabilities of the LB. Over the quarter, it went up by LTL 69.1 million, or 8.3 per cent. REVIEW OF THE CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF CREDIT INSTITUTIONS Assets of credit institutions grew during the quarter. The largest share (88.0%) of these assets comprised of reserves, foreign assets and claims on both the private sector and the central government. At the end of March, reserves accounted for 5.9 per cent of the total assets of credit institutions. The amount of reserves declined by LTL 54.5 million, or 2.9 per cent during the quarter. Deposits with the LB made up 75.3 per cent of the reserves. Over the quarter, it fell by LTL 34.0 million, or 2.4 per cent. Foreign assets increased by LTL 828.4 million, or 17.7 per cent. It accounted for 18.1 per cent of the total assets of credit institutions at the end of the quarter. At the end of March, claims equalled to 72.4 per cent of the total assets of credit institutions. The amount of claims grew by LTL 894.1 million, or 4.2 per cent over the quarter. Loans made up the largest part (88.3%) of the claims. Short-term loans accounted for 16.1 per cent; long-term loans made up another 83.9 per cent of the total loans of credit institutions. During the quarter, the amount of short-term loans decreased by LTL 244.5 million (7.2%), long-term loans increased by LTL 1,174.2 million (7.7%). Loans in litas accounted for 41.8 per cent; loans in foreign currencies equalled to another 58.2 per cent of the total loans of credit institutions. The amount of loans in litas and in foreign currencies augmented by LTL 256.9 million (3.3%) and LTL 672.8 million (6.3%), respectively. 25
Composition of Loans in 2005 (End-of-period; percentage; compared with the total amount) loans to: Months 01 02 03 Central government 2.1 0.0 0.0 Local governments 2.1 2.0 2.0 Social security funds 0.7 0.7 0.7 Public non-financial enterprises 0.5 0.5 0.6 Private business enterprises 60.1 61.0 60.2 Individuals 25.4 26.4 27.1 Non-profit institutions 0.2 0.2 0.2 Non-bank financial institutions 8.9 9.2 9.2 Short-term loans to: Central government 11.5 0.0 0.0 Local governments 0.7 0.8 0.8 Social security funds Public non-financial enterprises 0.6 0.8 1.2 Private business enterprises 66.9 75.5 73.9 Individuals 4.2 4.5 4.3 Non-profit institutions 0.2 0.2 0.2 Non-bank financial institutions 15.9 18.2 19.6 Long-term loans to: Central government 0.0 0.0 0.0 Local governments 2.4 2.3 2.2 Social security funds 0.9 0.8 0.8 Public non-financial enterprises 0.5 0.5 0.5 Private business enterprises 58.6 58.2 57.6 Individuals 29.9 30.5 31.5 Non-profit institutions 0.2 0.2 0.2 Non-bank financial institutions 7.5 7.5 7.2 Composition of Assets Other assets accounted for 3.6 per cent of the total assets of credit institutions. It increased over the quarter. 26
Deposits made up the largest part (60.5%) of the total liabilities of credit institutions. Demand deposits accounted for 24.7 per cent of the total liabilities of credit institutions. The amount of demand deposits grew by LTL 210.4 million, or 2.9 per cent during the quarter. The amount increased most for demand deposits of non-bank financial institutions, local governments, non-profit institutions and public non-financial enterprises. Composition of Demand Deposits in 2005 (End-of-period; percentage; compared with the total amount) Months 01 02 03 Demand deposits of: Local governments 5.9 5.4 4.8 Public non-financial enterprises 3.2 3.3 3.1 Private business enterprises 36.3 35.3 35.5 Individuals 50.2 51.4 51.9 Non-profit institutions 2.9 3.1 2.9 Non-bank financial institutions 1.5 1.5 1.8 Time and savings deposits accounted for 17.7 per cent and foreign currency deposits made up 16.4 per cent of the total liabilities of credit institutions at the end of the quarter. The amount of time and savings deposits grew by LTL 423.8 million, or 8.5 per cent. The amount increased most for time and savings deposits of local governments, non-profit institutions, non-bank financial institutions and private business enterprises. The amount of foreign currency deposits went up by LTL 695.9 million, or 16.1 per cent. The amount augmented most for foreign currency deposits of private business enterprises, public non-financial enterprises, individuals and non-bank financial institutions. Composition of Time and Savings Deposits and Foreign Currency Deposits in 2005 (End-of-period; percentage; compared with the total amount) Time and savings deposits of: Months 01 02 03 Local governments 0.1 0.2 0.2 Public non-financial enterprises 2.6 2.4 2.5 Private business enterprises 18.0 17.3 18.2 Individuals 75.6 76.5 75.5 Non-profit institutions 0.9 1.1 1.0 Non-bank financial institutions 2.8 2.5 2.6 Foreign currency deposits of: Local governments 0.1 0.1 0.1 Public non-financial enterprises 2.9 2.5 3.1 Private business enterprises 42.8 44.5 47.7 Individuals 52.2 50.8 47.4 Non-profit institutions 1.3 1.2 1.1 Non-bank financial institutions 0.7 0.9 0.6 Foreign liabilities accounted for 23.2 per cent of the total liabilities of credit institutions. The amount of foreign liabilities went up by LTL 162.8 million, or 2.4 per cent during the quarter. Other liabilities made up 16.4 per cent of the total liabilities of credit institutions at the end of the quarter. It increased by LTL 250.8 million, or 5.3 per cent. 27